Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T06:52:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
BE 0xbec5…fc69 other 64 markets active 2h ago coverage 141d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$48 (-3%) realized −$48 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate43%26W / 35L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit39%portable
Net worth$75now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$47
7 days−$112
14 days−$41
30 days−$41
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 76% −$115
sports 19% +$11
crypto 5% +$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 -23.4% -30.7% 42% 39% -22.4%
≤30d 52 +2.3% -7.5% 44% 40% -12.2%
≤90d 52 +2.3% -7.5% 44% 40% -12.2%
all 61 -3.3% -12.5% 43% 39% -15.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.5% 39% -15.1%
10% -20.9% 38% -23.2%
15% -28.6% 36% -30.6%
20% -35.6% 28% -37.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +22% → late -28% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$20 · ×1.17 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

141d coverage
Net worth$75
Realized−$48
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses26 / 35
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions3
Markets (closed)61 / 64
History coverage141d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit39%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 61 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Yes 82¢ 82¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-2%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Yes 84¢ 84¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 25 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $20 −$18 -88%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $15 −$11 -75%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $25 +$33 +129%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $30 +$17 +55%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $20 −$20 -98%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $25 −$25 -99%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $10 +$33 +325%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $25 −$25 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $25 −$25 -99%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $25 +$14 +57%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Japan? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $25 +$12 +46%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $25 +$18 +70%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $76 +$53 +70%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $26 +$1 +6%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $25 +$19 +76%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $26 −$24 -94%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $25 +$8 +32%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $25 −$25 -99%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $29 +$21 +73%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $50 −$50 -99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $25 +$10 +40%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $25 −$25 -99%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $21 −$18 -87%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $30 +$13 +44%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $25 +$12 +48%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $15 +$36 +234%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$52 +509%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $50 −$50 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $31 −$31 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $25 +$24 +93%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $26 $0 +0%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $26 +$64 +250%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $25 −$25 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 +$45 +442%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$8 -79%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $40 +$24 +59%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $51 +$51 +101%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $66 −$2 -3%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $26 −$15 -58%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Neither team to score first? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 29¢ $26 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 84¢ $20 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 82¢ $30 2h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? SELL Yes 7¢ $3 2h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 54¢ $20 2h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 11¢ $4 2h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 42¢ $15 2h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $20 28h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 52¢ $25 28h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 35h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $25 37h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $30 37h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $25 37h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $25 37h
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 38h
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Japan? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $25 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $25 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 63¢ $25 2d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 68¢ $50 3d
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 32¢ $27 3d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 45¢ $25 3d
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $15 3d
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $26 3d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 4d
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $15 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 56¢ $25 4d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 4d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 75¢ $25 4d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 18¢ $20 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $74.86 · official $74.87 (match) · 110 history records