Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T23:31:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
BE 0xbec1…e5b4 politics 33 markets active 2h ago coverage 300d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$3 (+0%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate25%8W / 24L
Drawdown9%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 36% $0
world 31% +$2
other 20% +$1
tech 6% $0
sports 6% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-7.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 6 +1.0% -8.7% 50% 0% -8.6%
≤90d 6 +1.0% -8.7% 50% 0% -8.6%
all 32 +2.0% -7.7% 25% 6% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.7% 6% -9.1%
10% -16.5% 6% -17.8%
15% -24.6% 0% -25.8%
20% -32.0% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 51% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% too few recent
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×7.99 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×6.39 per $1 lost it wins $6.39
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

300d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses8 / 24
Open positions1
Markets (closed)32 / 33
History coverage300d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown9%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No 76¢ 76¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 07 $30 $0 +1%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $20 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $30 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 05 $30 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $94 +$1 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 04 $29 +$1 +3%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 14 $34 $0 -0%
Will Mistral have a #1 AI model this year? Sep 14 $5 $0 +4%
Xi Jinping out before October? Sep 14 $25 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 14 $9 $0 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Sep 13 $32 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 13 $6 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 1k-2.5k Gold Cards in 2025? Sep 08 $39 $0 -0%
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 02 $7 $0 -2%
Will Zhipu AI have a #1 AI model this year? Sep 02 $37 $0 +0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 02 $32 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in 2025? Sep 02 $46 $0 +0%
Will Seán Kelly win the Irish Presidential Election? Sep 02 $38 $0 +1%
Will Trump announce Kevin Hassett as next Fed Chair in 2025? Aug 29 $4 $0 -0%
Will Trump deport 750,000-1,000,000 people? Aug 28 $1 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 28 $36 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Switzerland? Aug 28 $1 $0 +33%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Aug 28 $38 $0 +0%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 Aug 28 $5 $0 -4%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Aug 28 $33 $0 -0%
Will Red Bull Racing be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Aug 27 $38 $0 +0%
Will Jack Draper win the 2025 US Open? Aug 27 $2 $0 +0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 27 $31 $0 +0%
Will Google have the top AI model on August 31? Aug 26 $8 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 26 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 26 $34 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 255–269 times August 22–August 29? Aug 26 $2 +$1 +28%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $30 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 70¢ $30 15d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 69¢ $30 15d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $20 15d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $20 16d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $10 16d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $19 16d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $30 16d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 45¢ $30 17d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 45¢ $20 17d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 45¢ $9 17d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 49¢ $6 17d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 49¢ $10 17d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 50¢ $3 17d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 49¢ $13 17d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 48¢ $21 18d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 48¢ $4 18d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 48¢ $17 18d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 66¢ $14 18d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 66¢ $16 18d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 64¢ $29 19d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 51¢ $29 19d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 51¢ $29 19d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 48¢ $28 20d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 46¢ $4 21d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 46¢ $23 21d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 96¢ $33 281d
Will Mistral have a #1 AI model this year? SELL Yes 9¢ $2 281d
Will Mistral have a #1 AI model this year? SELL Yes 9¢ $3 281d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 96¢ $34 281d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.40 · official $30.40 (match) · 127 history records