Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T00:54:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
BE 0xbec0…9bdd other 83 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d ⚠
BOTnot copyable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 1d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (3152 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL −$15,802 (-7%) realized −$9,380 · open −$6,422
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +619% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +432% what you keep after slip
Net edge+432%after slip
Net WR70%break-even
Win rate80%116W / 29L
Whale WR75%big bets
Drawdown21%max
Avg bet$2,879per market
Trades / day3152.0pace
Fees−$993est.
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$31,043now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% +$8,713
sports 44% +$9,837
crypto 10% +$1,276
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (3152 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +70%
net ROI/market (all)+550.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 145 +619.3% +550.8% 80% 70% +25.1%
≤30d 145 +619.3% +550.8% 80% 70% +25.1%
≤90d 145 +619.3% +550.8% 80% 70% +25.1%
all 145 +619.3% +550.8% 80% 70% +25.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3152.0 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +550.8% 70% +25.1%
10% +488.5% 66% +13.1%
15% ← realistic here +431.6% 63% +2.2%
20% +379.5% 59% -7.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +54% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +619% · $-wt +54% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 75% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +189% → late +1043% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
37.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$666 vs −$631 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×4.22 per $1 lost it wins $4.22
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$31,043
Realized−$9,380
Unrealized−$6,422
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses116 / 29
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Est. fees paid−$993
Open positions36
Markets (closed)145 / 83
History coverage1d ⚠
Avg bet$2,879
Trades / day3152.0
Drawdown21%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 36 History 145 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 3 Netherlands? Yes 76¢ 94¢ $5,355 $6,565 +$1,210 (+23%)
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Yes 68¢ 85¢ $2,687 $3,376 +$689 (+26%)
Exact Score: Japan 1 - 3 Sweden? No 97¢ 99¢ $2,922 $2,985 +$63 (+2%)
Exact Score: Japan 1 - 2 Sweden? No 90¢ 90¢ $2,213 $2,219 +$6 (+0%)
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 Under 77¢ 98¢ $1,642 $2,093 +$451 (+27%)
Exact Score: Japan 1 - 1 Sweden? Yes 79¢ 85¢ $1,948 $2,092 +$144 (+7%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? No 84¢ 91¢ $1,512 $1,639 +$127 (+8%)
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 5.5 Under 80¢ 99¢ $978 $1,216 +$238 (+24%)
Spread: Netherlands (-4.5) Tunisia 78¢ 100¢ $918 $1,164 +$247 (+27%)
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 6.5 Under 89¢ 99¢ $798 $893 +$96 (+12%)
Exact Score: Tunisia 2 - 3 Netherlands? No 93¢ 98¢ $819 $859 +$39 (+5%)
Exact Score: Japan 2 - 3 Sweden? No 98¢ 100¢ $815 $831 +$15 (+2%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Yes 93¢ 100¢ $704 $754 +$50 (+7%)
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Japan 87¢ 99¢ $611 $698 +$86 (+14%)
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5 Under 95¢ 100¢ $623 $651 +$28 (+5%)
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Over 46¢ 16¢ $1,235 $414 −$821 (-66%)
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Under 84¢ 84¢ $392 $394 +$3 (+1%)
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 4.5 Under 89¢ 82¢ $363 $337 −$27 (-7%)
Exact Score: Japan 3 - 3 Sweden? No 97¢ 100¢ $317 $327 +$10 (+3%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Yes 37¢ 5¢ $2,207 $322 −$1,885 (-85%)
Exact Score: Japan 3 - 2 Sweden? No 96¢ 100¢ $268 $278 +$10 (+4%)
Exact Score: Japan 3 - 0 Sweden? No 95¢ 100¢ $243 $256 +$13 (+5%)
Exact Score: Japan 2 - 1 Sweden? Yes 11¢ 6¢ $395 $236 −$158 (-40%)
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 Under 96¢ 100¢ $86 $89 +$3 (+4%)
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Netherlands? No 99¢ 100¢ $79 $80 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 113 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $71 +$876 +1239%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Canada? Jun 26 $603 +$402 +67%
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 26 $274 −$274 -100%
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 26 $1,006 +$670 +67%
South Africa leading at halftime? Jun 26 $146 +$517 +353%
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 0 Korea Republic? Jun 26 $128 +$296 +231%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 26 $96 +$42 +44%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 26 $161 +$806 +500%
Colombia leading at halftime? Jun 26 $62 +$602 +965%
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 3 Korea Republic? Jun 26 $67 +$142 +212%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 Jun 26 $85 +$476 +558%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 0.5 Jun 26 $16 +$5 +29%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 5.5 Jun 26 $4 +$520 +14101%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 26 $202 +$1,628 +806%
Exact Score: South Africa 2 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 26 $14 +$1,232 +9093%
Exact Score: Morocco 1 - 1 Haiti? Jun 26 $50 +$74 +147%
Haiti leading at halftime? Jun 26 $1,719 −$1,719 -100%
Exact Score: Morocco 2 - 1 Haiti? Jun 26 $282 −$170 -60%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? Jun 26 $83 +$1,947 +2336%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 26 $1,231 −$1,058 -86%
Canada leading at halftime? Jun 26 $128 +$879 +689%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Draw at halftime? Jun 26 $89 +$746 +838%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Canada? Jun 26 $254 −$138 -54%
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 1 Croatia? Jun 26 $8 +$1,193 +14312%
Exact Score: Morocco 3 - 1 Haiti? Jun 26 $125 +$128 +102%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 4.5 Jun 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $26 +$51 +197%
Ecuador vs. Germany: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $961 −$961 -100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 26 $452 +$2,820 +624%
Switzerland leading at halftime? Jun 26 $482 −$223 -46%
Exact Score: South Africa 2 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 26 $17 +$513 +2968%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? Jun 26 $153 +$1,291 +846%
Panama leading at halftime? Jun 26 $164 +$137 +84%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $62 +$365 +587%
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 0.5 Jun 26 $167 −$112 -67%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $41 +$331 +803%
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Ghana? Jun 26 $10 +$299 +2968%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 26 $78 +$2,918 +3743%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 0.5 Jun 26 $9 −$9 -100%
Scotland vs. Brazil: Draw at halftime? Jun 26 $35 −$35 -100%
Morocco leading at halftime? Jun 26 $5,560 −$5,724 -103%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 0.5 Jun 26 $69 +$349 +508%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $103 −$43 -42%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $193 +$5 +3%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 Jun 26 $2 +$564 +35582%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Canada? Jun 26 $349 +$378 +108%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $3 +$284 +8574%
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $3 +$754 +27320%
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 0 Canada? Jun 26 $69 +$739 +1063%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 26 $7 +$313 +4785%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 89¢ $36 0m
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 88¢ $14 0m
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 89¢ $75 0m
Exact Score: Japan 1 - 2 Sweden? BUY No 92¢ $23 0m
Exact Score: Japan 1 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 88¢ $60 0m
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 89¢ $8 0m
Exact Score: Japan 1 - 2 Sweden? BUY No 92¢ $12 0m
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 88¢ $80 0m
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 89¢ $8 0m
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 0m
Exact Score: Japan 1 - 2 Sweden? BUY No 92¢ $41 0m
Exact Score: Japan 1 - 2 Sweden? BUY No 92¢ $42 0m
Exact Score: Japan 1 - 2 Sweden? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 0m
Exact Score: Japan 1 - 2 Sweden? BUY Yes 8¢ $4 0m
Exact Score: Japan 2 - 1 Sweden? BUY No 95¢ $11 0m
Exact Score: Japan 1 - 2 Sweden? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 0m
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 99¢ $70 0m
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 96¢ $96 0m
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 96¢ $24 0m
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 96¢ $12 0m
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 0m
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 8¢ $7 0m
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 97¢ $137 0m
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 10¢ $11 0m
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 85¢ $100 0m
Exact Score: Japan 1 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 84¢ $28 0m
Exact Score: Japan 1 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 84¢ $65 0m
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 84¢ $86 0m
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 83¢ $51 0m
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 84¢ $51 0m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31,042.69 · official $30,155.43 · 3500 history records