Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:00:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
BE 0xbebd…ed60 crypto 437 markets active 10h ago coverage 61d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$72 (+1%) realized +$72 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate71%309W / 128L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day17.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$249
7 days−$305
14 days−$253
30 days−$120
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% +$11
world 3% −$16
politics 0% +$2
weather 0% −$9
other 0% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-1.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 71 +10.4% -0.1% 58% 37% -17.1%
≤30d 289 +10.1% -0.3% 69% 48% -10.7%
≤90d 437 +8.9% -1.5% 71% 50% -9.7%
all 437 +8.9% -1.5% 71% 50% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.5% 50% -9.7%
10% -10.9% 39% -18.3%
15% -19.5% 28% -26.2%
20% -27.4% 21% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late +10% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$9 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

61d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$72
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses309 / 128
Open positions0
Markets (closed)437 / 437
History coverage61d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day17.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 437 Trades
no open positions (50 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 17 $87 −$86 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 17 $122 +$6 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 17 $37 −$37 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 17 $61 +$56 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 17 $62 −$60 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 17 $112 +$50 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 17 $99 −$97 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 17 $86 −$84 -97%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $7 +$3 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 15 $9 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 15 $17 +$3 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $8 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 +156%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 15 $395 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 15 $53 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 15 $44 +$6 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $24 +$26 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 15 $16 −$16 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $8 +$2 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 15 $22 −$2 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 15 $196 +$12 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 15 $200 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 15 $98 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 15 $196 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 15 $9 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 15 $9 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 15 $8 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $8 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 15 $19 +$1 +6%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $48 −$48 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 13 $206 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 13 $7 +$3 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$2 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 12 $191 +$7 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 12 $294 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 12 $23 +$6 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 12 $17 +$3 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 12 $289 +$8 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 12 $282 +$15 +5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 12 $9 −$9 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 12 $58 +$38 +65%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $86 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET SELL Down 70¢ $69 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $26 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $2 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $38 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET SELL Down 61¢ $59 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $56 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $11 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $17 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $8 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET SELL Down 55¢ $4 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET SELL Down 45¢ $2 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET SELL Down 45¢ $11 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET SELL Down 45¢ $12 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET SELL Down 45¢ $2 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET SELL Down 45¢ $3 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET SELL Down 45¢ $11 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET SELL Down 45¢ $2 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET SELL Down 45¢ $11 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET SELL Down 45¢ $11 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $21 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $8 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $2 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $7 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $23 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $61 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET SELL Down 82¢ $162 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1368 history records