Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T20:41:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
BE 0xbebc…ec02 sports 93 markets active 0h ago coverage 195d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$2,445 (-2%) realized −$2,445 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate73%65W / 24L
Whale WR65%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,061per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$122est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$210now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$24
7 days+$80
14 days+$194
30 days+$415
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% −$2,722
other 4% +$200
crypto 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-17.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -18.1% -25.9% 50% 17% -8.2%
≤30d 10 -18.4% -26.2% 60% 10% -6.1%
≤90d 38 -4.4% -13.5% 76% 16% -9.6%
all 89 -8.8% -17.5% 73% 15% -11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.5% 15% -11.8%
10% -25.4% 6% -20.3%
15% -32.6% 0% -28.0%
20% -39.2% 0% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
78% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 65% (≥$1,202) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$185 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

195d coverage
Net worth$210
Realized−$2,445
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses65 / 24
Whale WR (big bets)65%
Est. fees paid−$122
Open positions4
Markets (closed)89 / 93
History coverage195d
Avg bet$1,061
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 89 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs West Indies England 96¢ 100¢ $100 $104 +$4 (+4%)
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs Netherlands South Africa 95¢ 96¢ $49 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Will England win? Yes 60¢ 54¢ $50 $44 −$6 (-11%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 19¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Scotland Jun 23 $101 +$24 +24%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs India Jun 21 $52 −$51 -99%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Bangladesh Jun 20 $1,202 −$10 -1%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 20 $2,965 +$133 +4%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Netherlands Jun 20 $1,068 +$22 +2%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland Jun 18 $101 −$39 -38%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 17 $661 +$55 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 11 $679 +$69 +10%
Will India win? Jun 08 $3,999 +$221 +6%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Royal Challengers Bengal May 22 $1,000 +$7 +1%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Sunrisers Hyderabad May 18 $1,000 +$2 +0%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Gujarat Titans May 16 $501 +$26 +5%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Chennai Super Kings May 15 $2,102 −$60 -3%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Mumbai Indians May 14 $10 +$3 +34%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Kolkata Knight R May 14 $1,000 +$10 +1%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Delhi Capitals May 11 $101 +$24 +24%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Mumbai Indians May 10 $101 +$12 +12%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Lucknow Super Giants May 10 $10 +$3 +30%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Lucknow Super Giants Apr 19 $1,000 +$1 +0%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Chennai Super Kings Apr 18 $500 +$22 +4%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Kolkata Knight Riders Apr 17 $100 +$4 +4%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Kolkata Knight Riders Apr 14 $1,472 −$9 -1%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Rajasthan Royals Apr 13 $1,100 +$48 +4%
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Royal Challengers Bangalore Apr 13 $4,000 +$33 +1%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Gujarat Titans Apr 13 $94 +$6 +6%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Delhi Capitals Apr 11 $1,189 +$105 +9%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Sunrisers Hyderabad Apr 11 $2,500 +$37 +2%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Lucknow Super Giants Apr 10 $1,100 −$931 -85%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Royal Challengers Bangalore Apr 10 $3,000 +$35 +1%
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Gujarat Titans Apr 09 $300 +$70 +24%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Mumbai Indians Apr 07 $7,891 +$27 +0%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Chennai Super Ki Apr 05 $1,000 +$9 +1%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Lucknow Super Giants Apr 05 $200 +$2 +1%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Punjab Kings Apr 03 $1,200 −$56 -5%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Chennai Super Kings Mar 30 $100 −$61 -61%
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Kolkata Knight Riders Mar 29 $3,100 +$89 +3%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Sunrisers Hydera Mar 28 $3,100 +$93 +3%
Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch? Mar 20 $10 −$5 -51%
T20 World Cup: Canada vs New Zealand (Game 1) Mar 20 $4,000 −$33 -1%
International T20 Series: India vs New Zealand (Game 4) Mar 20 $20 −$20 -100%
International ODI: India vs New Zealand (Game 2) Mar 20 $10 −$10 -100%
SA20: Sunrisers Eastern Cape vs Joburg Super Kings (Game 1) Mar 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will LeBron James be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Mar 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Big Bash League: Hobart Hurricanes vs Brisbane Heat (Game 1) Mar 20 $10 −$10 -100%
T20 Series New Zealand vs South Africa: New Zealand vs South Africa Mar 20 $5,000 $0 -0%
T20 World Cup: South Africa vs New Zealand Mar 04 $1,000 +$3 +0%
T20 World Cup: India vs West Indies Mar 01 $1,500 +$77 +5%
T20 World Cup: Zimbabwe vs South Africa Mar 01 $3,000 +$24 +1%
T20 World Cup: Sri Lanka vs Pakistan Feb 28 $1,000 +$11 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs Netherlands BUY South Africa 95¢ $21 10m
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs West Indies BUY England 96¢ $100 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs Netherlands BUY South Africa 95¢ $28 6h
Will England win? BUY Yes 60¢ $51 17h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Scotland SELL New Zealand 100¢ $125 31h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Scotland BUY New Zealand 80¢ $101 41h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs India BUY India 65¢ $52 3d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Bangladesh SELL Bangladesh 100¢ $1,165 4d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Bangladesh BUY Bangladesh 97¢ $1,001 4d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Bangladesh BUY Bangladesh 74¢ $101 4d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Bangladesh SELL Pakistan 26¢ $27 4d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Bangladesh BUY Pakistan 94¢ $100 4d
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan SELL India 100¢ $3,099 4d
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY India 100¢ $1,000 4d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Netherlands SELL Australia 99¢ $1,090 4d
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY India 93¢ $869 4d
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY India 93¢ $26 4d
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY India 93¢ $36 4d
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY India 94¢ $1 5d
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY India 94¢ $878 5d
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY India 94¢ $155 5d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Netherlands BUY Australia 97¢ $253 5d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Netherlands BUY Australia 97¢ $359 5d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Netherlands BUY Australia 97¢ $227 5d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland SELL West Indies 45¢ $62 6d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Netherlands BUY Australia 97¢ $33 6d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Netherlands BUY Australia 97¢ $97 6d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Netherlands BUY Australia 97¢ $97 6d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland BUY West Indies 71¢ $101 6d
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan SELL India 95¢ $716 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $209.52 · official $209.52 (match) · 400 history records