Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:40:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BE 0xbeb8…1f7b other 236 markets active 1h ago coverage 127d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$60 (-0%) realized −$60 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate6%14W / 221L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$214per market
Trades / day9.6pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$58now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$19
14 days−$29
30 days−$41
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% −$36
sports 22% −$15
politics 9% −$6
culture 6% −$6
economics 6% −$5
crypto 4% −$2
world 4% −$1
tech 0% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 69 -0.2% -9.7% 1% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 179 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
all 235 -0.1% -9.6% 6% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.29 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.08 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

127d coverage
Net worth$58
Realized−$60
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses14 / 221
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)235 / 236
History coverage127d
Avg bet$214
Trades / day9.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 235 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $58 $58 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $120 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $462 −$1 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 16 $359 −$3 -1%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $550 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $126 $0 -0%
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 15 $150 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $388 −$1 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $524 −$1 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $521 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $202 $0 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $113 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $127 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $271 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $299 −$1 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $428 −$1 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $320 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $513 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $660 −$1 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 12 $195 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $363 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $569 −$2 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $333 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 11 $849 −$1 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 11 $311 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 11 $423 −$1 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $394 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $336 −$1 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $169 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 08 $673 −$1 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 08 $63 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $232 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 07 $133 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $282 −$1 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $359 −$1 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $654 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $431 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $251 $0 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 05 $64 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 05 $161 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 05 $313 −$1 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 04 $65 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 04 $65 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 04 $65 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 04 $365 −$1 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 04 $211 $0 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 03 $594 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $659 −$1 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 02 $254 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 02 $269 −$1 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 02 $535 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $58 1h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $58 1h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $58 3h
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $58 13h
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $59 14h
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $58 20h
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $59 21h
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $59 23h
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $59 24h
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $59 32h
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $59 33h
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $59 38h
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $59 39h
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $54 42h
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $54 44h
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $59 2d
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $59 2d
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $59 2d
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $59 2d
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $59 2d
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $60 2d
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $60 2d
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $60 2d
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $49 2d
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $49 2d
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $60 3d
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $60 3d
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $60 3d
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $60 3d
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $60 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $58.17 · official $58.17 (match) · 1276 history records