Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T14:25:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
BE 0xbeaf…135b politics 55 markets active 0h ago coverage 317d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$5 (+0%) realized +$5 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate40%22W / 33L
Drawdown23%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 31% +$1
politics 25% +$1
other 21% $0
economics 7% $0
tech 7% +$1
sports 6% $0
crypto 2% $0
weather 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-7.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +0.7% -8.9% 50% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 14 +0.3% -9.3% 43% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 14 +0.3% -9.3% 43% 0% -9.4%
all 55 +2.4% -7.3% 40% 9% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.3% 9% -9.2%
10% -16.2% 5% -17.9%
15% -24.3% 4% -25.8%
20% -31.7% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
77% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×2.17 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.27 per $1 lost it wins $2.27
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

317d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses22 / 33
Open positions0
Markets (closed)55 / 55
History coverage317d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown23%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 55 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $57 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $1 $0 +2%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $6 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 17 $23 $0 +2%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 27 $39 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 26 $57 $0 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 26 $46 $0 +0%
Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 25 $45 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 25 $22 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 24 $50 +$1 +2%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 24 $16 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 23 $45 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 22 $18 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 21 $21 $0 -1%
Will Zhipu AI have a #1 AI model this year? Dec 30 $76 +$1 +1%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 17 $10 $0 -2%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? Aug 20 $5 $0 -1%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on December 31? Aug 20 $4 +$1 +20%
Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in August? Aug 17 $6 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $3300 in August? Aug 14 $1 $0 +19%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Aug 14 $7 $0 -1%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 14 $63 $0 -0%
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 14 $14 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 14 $13 $0 -0%
Will Evelyn Matthei win the Chilean presidential election? Aug 14 $12 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $14,000 by December 31? Aug 13 $7 $0 -0%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026? Aug 13 $8 $0 -6%
Will Trump meet with Jerome Powell in August? Aug 13 $6 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? Aug 13 $13 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Aug 13 $12 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 13 $13 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Aug 12 $13 $0 +0%
Will Fergus Finlay win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 11 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 11 $6 $0 +0%
Will Daniel Baluta be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Aug 11 $6 $0 -0%
Will Achraf Hakimi win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 11 $1 $0 +40%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Aug 11 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 79-80°F on August 11 Aug 10 $4 +$1 +30%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in August? Aug 10 $6 $0 -0%
Will Juventus win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 10 $2 $0 -8%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Aug 10 $63 $0 +0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 10 $7 $0 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 09 $7 $0 +0%
Will Conor McGregor win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 08 $4 +$2 +42%
Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2025? Aug 08 $4 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 08 $7 $0 +0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 08 $67 $0 +0%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.05–1.10ºC in July 2025? Aug 08 $10 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 07 $59 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Aug 07 $16 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 51¢ $28 3m
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 51¢ $5 3m
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 52¢ $34 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes $1 4h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes $0 4h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes $1 6h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $6 13h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $0 15h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $4 15h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 15h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 66¢ $7 19h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 66¢ $16 19h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 65¢ $23 21h
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL No 99¢ $2 22d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL No 99¢ $28 22d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL No 99¢ $10 22d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab BUY No 98¢ $39 22d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 84¢ $50 22d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 83¢ $50 22d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 57¢ $46 23d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 57¢ $35 23d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 57¢ $11 23d
Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 99¢ $45 23d
Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 99¢ $45 23d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $22 24d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $22 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL Yes 15¢ $6 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY Yes 16¢ $7 24d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL No 95¢ $51 24d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY No 92¢ $50 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 216 history records