Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T20:19:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
BE 0xbeae…e97d other 25 markets active 2h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$294 (+15%) realized +$295 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate43%9W / 12L
Drawdown68%max
Avg bet$81per market
Trades / day5.9pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit16%portable
Net worth$233now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 94% +$329
sports 6% −$71
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-25.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -17.2% -25.1% 43% 43% +3.7%
≤30d 21 -17.2% -25.1% 43% 43% +3.7%
≤90d 21 -17.2% -25.1% 43% 43% +3.7%
all 21 -17.2% -25.1% 43% 43% +3.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.1% 43% +3.7%
10% -32.3% 43% -6.2%
15% -38.8% 33% -15.3%
20% -44.8% 29% -23.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +15% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt +15% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +24% → late -55% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$89 vs −$45 · ×1.97 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.48 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$233
Realized+$295
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses9 / 12
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions4
Markets (closed)21 / 25
History coverage5d
Avg bet$81
Trades / day5.9
Drawdown68%
Kalshi-fit16%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 21 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Yes 55¢ 56¢ $78 $79 +$1 (+1%)
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $16 $16 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $28 −$28 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $114 +$83 +72%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $65 +$15 +24%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $173 +$46 +27%
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Jun 26 $23 −$6 -28%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $36 −$36 -100%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $15 −$15 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $46 −$46 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $46 −$46 -100%
Exact Score: Japan 0 - 0 Sweden? Jun 26 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Tunisia vs. Netherlands end in a draw? Jun 26 $9 +$17 +180%
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 25 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $131 −$131 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $179 +$159 +89%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $77 +$114 +149%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $77 −$77 -100%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $159 +$84 +53%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $97 +$124 +128%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $347 +$156 +45%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 27¢ $16 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 57¢ $41 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 55¢ $80 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 48¢ $102 12h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 37¢ $21 21h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 38¢ $28 21h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 57¢ $114 21h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? SELL Yes 16¢ $16 25h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 71¢ $92 25h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 70¢ $92 25h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 80¢ $65 33h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $23 33h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 60¢ $81 33h
Will Tunisia vs. Netherlands end in a draw? SELL Yes 4¢ $26 44h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 22¢ $15 44h
Exact Score: Japan 0 - 0 Sweden? BUY Yes 24¢ $51 44h
Will Tunisia vs. Netherlands end in a draw? BUY Yes 2¢ $9 45h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $46 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 53¢ $46 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 61¢ $36 2d
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $31 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 61¢ $131 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 52¢ $179 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $191 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 30¢ $77 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 39¢ $77 3d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $242 4d
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $50 5d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $159 5d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $97 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $233.44 · official $233.45 (match) · 48 history records