Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:42:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
BE 0xbeac…bcc1 sports 386 markets active 1h ago coverage 60d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$161 (+5%) realized +$158 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate58%220W / 158L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day9.7pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$118now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$39
7 days+$66
14 days+$116
30 days+$150
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% +$77
sports 33% −$37
world 14% +$149
weather 8% +$26
crypto 1% −$15
finance 0% −$10
economics 0% +$11
politics 0% −$2
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-15.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 +43.0% +29.4% 64% 64% +4.0%
≤30d 80 +35.2% +22.4% 66% 65% +0.2%
≤90d 378 -6.8% -15.7% 58% 52% -4.5%
all 378 -6.8% -15.7% 58% 52% -4.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.7% 52% -4.5%
10% -23.8% 46% -13.7%
15% -31.1% 35% -22.0%
20% -37.9% 21% -29.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$7 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.17 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

60d coverage
Net worth$118
Realized+$158
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses220 / 158
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions6
Markets (closed)378 / 386
History coverage60d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day9.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 378 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Montpellier win? Yes 71¢ 63¢ $50 $44 −$6 (-11%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Yes 49¢ 62¢ $30 $38 +$8 (+26%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 64¢ 66¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 19¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+20%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 113 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Hurricanes win? Jun 20 $101 +$36 +36%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 +$7 +73%
Will Leinster win? Jun 19 $10 +$4 +38%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $10 +$16 +158%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $5 +$31 +596%
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 +$13 +124%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 +$7 +73%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $60 −$60 -99%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 +$7 +36%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 +$4 +40%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 +$7 +65%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 +$5 +48%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 +$5 +93%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 15 $10 +$8 +75%
Will Stade Francais win? Jun 14 $5 +$1 +27%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 +$23 +442%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 +$3 +57%
Will Exeter Chiefs win? Jun 13 $26 +$54 +211%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Hurricanes win? Jun 13 $10 +$1 +12%
Will the match end in a draw? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $136 +$142 +105%
Will Northampton Saints win? Jun 13 $10 +$3 +27%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $5 +$2 +44%
Will Crusaders win? Jun 11 $71 −$70 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Pau win? Jun 09 $10 −$10 -99%
Perugia: Henrique Rocha vs Daniel Merida Aguilar Jun 07 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Bayonne win? Jun 06 $5 +$1 +12%
Will Exeter Chiefs win? Jun 06 $10 +$5 +52%
Will Chiefs win? Jun 06 $20 +$2 +12%
Will Crusaders win? Jun 06 $20 +$5 +26%
Will Hurricanes win? Jun 05 $10 +$1 +11%
Will Brumbies win? Jun 05 $5 −$5 -97%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 02 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Toulon win? Jun 01 $5 +$2 +40%
Will Montpellier win? May 31 $10 +$4 +38%
Will Toulouse win? May 31 $5 +$2 +40%
Will La Rochelle win? May 31 $5 +$1 +24%
Will Stade Francais win? May 31 $10 +$3 +25%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 67¢ $20 1h
Will Hurricanes win? SELL Yes 100¢ $137 1h
Will Montpellier win? BUY Yes 66¢ $30 2h
Will Hurricanes win? BUY Yes 70¢ $40 5h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 19¢ $20 18h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 62¢ $10 22h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 22h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 32¢ $10 26h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 27h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 19¢ $13 28h
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 45h
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 1 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 45h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $10 45h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $50 2d
Will Hurricanes win? BUY Yes 72¢ $10 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $10 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY 38¢ $10 2d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 2d
Will Hurricanes win? BUY Yes 72¢ $10 3d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 66¢ $25 3d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 78¢ $25 3d
Will Montpellier win? BUY Yes 80¢ $20 3d
Will Leinster win? BUY Yes 72¢ $10 3d
Will Hurricanes win? BUY Yes 72¢ $10 3d
Will Hurricanes win? BUY Yes 72¢ $10 4d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 4d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 55¢ $10 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $10 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $10 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $118.03 · official $118.03 (match) · 723 history records