Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T08:37:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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BE 0xbeaa…efeb crypto 1025 markets active 0h ago coverage 83d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 83d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$371 (-4%) realized −$362 · open −$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -43% what you keep after slip
Net edge-43%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate41%516W / 758L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day41.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 83d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$659
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-32.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 388 -49.0% -53.8% 19% 17% -73.0%
≤30d 558 -38.2% -44.0% 28% 26% -62.9%
≤90d 1274 -25.5% -32.6% 41% 35% -37.1%
all 1274 -25.5% -32.6% 41% 35% -37.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover41.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -32.6% 35% -37.1%
10% ← realistic here -39.0% 28% -43.1%
15% -44.9% 23% -48.6%
20% -50.3% 15% -53.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -33% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt -33% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late -35% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$10 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.34 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

83d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized−$362
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses516 / 758
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1274 / 1025
History coverage83d ⚠
Avg bet$10
Trades / day41.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1274 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4AM ET Down 26¢ 8¢ $12 $4 −$8 (-67%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Down 32¢ 18¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-45%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 498 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 16, 11PM ET Jun 16 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 2, 5AM ET Jun 16 $29 −$25 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 19, 1AM ET Jun 16 $20 −$7 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 16, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$2 +144%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 17, 12AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 31, 12AM ET Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -109%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,200 on January 19? Jun 16 $90 −$139 -155%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on February 18? Jun 16 $25 −$25 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 31, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 8PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 10PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$7 -137%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on February 28? Jun 16 $25 +$40 +160%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 4AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 24, 1AM ET Jun 16 $8 −$10 -133%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 5AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$2 -204%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on February 15? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 3, 8PM ET Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 6, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 2, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 16 $16 −$16 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 25, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$5 -198%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 16, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 15, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 11, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$4 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 5, 1AM ET Jun 16 $18 −$23 -127%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 2, 2AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$1 -24%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 29, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 20, 5AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on February 13? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 8AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on January 17? Jun 16 $101 −$56 -55%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 26, 4PM ET Jun 16 $12 −$12 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 19, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$4 -73%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 25, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,100 on January 29? Jun 16 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 10PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$2 -58%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 9? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 21, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 13, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 11, 10PM ET Jun 16 $34 −$30 -88%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $2 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $3 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4AM ET SELL Down 40¢ $3 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $5 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4AM ET SELL Down 57¢ $9 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $16 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $2 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET SELL Down 54¢ $1 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET SELL Down 46¢ $3 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET SELL Down 25¢ $2 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET SELL Down 87¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET SELL Down 49¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3AM ET SELL Down 75¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET SELL Down 58¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3AM ET SELL Down 76¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3AM ET SELL Down 70¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3AM ET SELL Down 68¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $6 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.19 · official $6.94 · 3500 history records