Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T14:27:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
BE 0xbea6…b50c crypto 6 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$25 (+6%) realized +$25 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate83%5W / 1L
Drawdown3%max
Avg bet$67per market
Trades / day4.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$29
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-17.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -8.6% -17.3% 83% 17% -2.9%
≤30d 6 -8.6% -17.3% 83% 17% -2.9%
≤90d 6 -8.6% -17.3% 83% 17% -2.9%
all 6 -8.6% -17.3% 83% 17% -2.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.3% 17% -2.9%
10% -25.3% 17% -12.2%
15% -32.5% 0% -20.7%
20% -39.1% 0% -28.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 55% · top 2 74% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% too few recent
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt +7% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$1 · ×6.06 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×30.28 per $1 lost it wins $30.28
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$25
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses5 / 1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)6 / 6
History coverage1d
Avg bet$67
Trades / day4.7
Drawdown3%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 6 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 23 $100 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 23 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 23 $100 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 22 $50 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 22 $51 +$17 +33%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $100 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $100 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $50 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $51 32h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 11 history records