trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? | Jun 14 | $1 | $0 | -2% |
| Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Second Weekend Box Office be between 57m a | Dec 27 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem | Dec 14 | $15 | −$1 | -9% |
| Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? | Dec 14 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will Aston Villa finish in the top 4 of the EPL 2025–26 standings? | Dec 11 | $3 | −$3 | -100% |
| Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? | Dec 10 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? | Dec 10 | $10 | $0 | +4% |
| Will there be exactly 7 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwi | Dec 07 | $3 | −$3 | -100% |
| Will Jensen Huang be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? | Dec 06 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | -2.4% | -11.7% | 0% | 0% | -11.7% |
| ≤30d | 1 | -2.4% | -11.7% | 0% | 0% | -11.7% |
| ≤90d | 1 | -2.4% | -11.7% | 0% | 0% | -11.7% |
| all | 9 | -67.5% | -70.6% | 11% | 0% | -52.8% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -70.6% | 0% | -52.8% |
| 10% | -73.4% | 0% | -57.3% |
| 15% | -76.0% | 0% | -61.5% |
| 20% | -78.3% | 0% | -65.2% |