Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:38:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BE 0xbea5…2cf0 weather 445 markets active 1h ago coverage 24d
BOTnot copyable weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (54 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,295 (-8%) realized −$1,290 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +88% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +45% what you keep after slip
Net edge+45%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate40%171W / 254L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day53.6pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$559now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$39
7 days−$594
14 days−$691
30 days−$1,353
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 76% −$1,117
other 7% −$151
politics 5% −$64
sports 5% −$77
crypto 4% +$3
world 1% +$1
tech 1% +$52
finance 1% −$3
culture 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (54 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)+70.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 72 +308.3% +269.4% 49% 49% -13.6%
≤30d 425 +88.2% +70.3% 40% 28% -10.9%
≤90d 425 +88.2% +70.3% 40% 28% -10.9%
all 425 +88.2% +70.3% 40% 28% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover53.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +70.3% 28% -10.9%
10% ← realistic here +54.0% 24% -19.4%
15% +39.1% 19% -27.2%
20% +25.5% 15% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +88% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +46% → late +130% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$13 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$559
Realized−$1,290
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses171 / 254
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions20
Markets (closed)425 / 445
History coverage24d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day53.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 20 History 425 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on June 16? No 76¢ 100¢ $50 $66 +$16 (+32%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 17? No 49¢ 58¢ $50 $60 +$9 (+18%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 17? No 73¢ 100¢ $42 $58 +$16 (+38%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 17? No 47¢ 53¢ $50 $56 +$6 (+13%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 17? No 78¢ 81¢ $50 $52 +$2 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 17? No 74¢ 74¢ $50 $51 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 17? No 79¢ 78¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 17°C on June 17? No 66¢ 66¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 17? No 61¢ 58¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 17? No 69¢ 66¢ $50 $48 −$3 (-5%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 17? No 67¢ 79¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+18%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on June 16? No 59¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+69%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 17? No 67¢ 56¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-17%)
Will Pamela Evette win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election? No 35¢ 84¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+138%)
Will Solana dip to $50 in June? No 74¢ 98¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+33%)
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the first round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 10-15%? No 82¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+22%)
Will voter turnout be 60%+ in the first round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election? No 88¢ 99¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+13%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 16? No 61¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Will Nirav Shah win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary election? Yes 47¢ 18¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-63%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 42¢ 2¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-96%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 145 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $51 −$7 -14%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 16? Jun 16 $51 +$31 +61%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 16 $52 −$16 -30%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on June 16? Jun 16 $51 −$15 -29%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 16? Jun 16 $52 +$22 +43%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on June 16? Jun 16 $51 +$6 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 16? Jun 16 $51 +$9 +17%
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $51 −$5 -9%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 16 $25 +$3 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $25 −$20 -80%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $51 +$7 +13%
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $151 −$5 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 17°C on June 15? Jun 16 $25 +$6 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on June 16? Jun 16 $25 −$1 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 15? Jun 15 $52 −$49 -94%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 15? Jun 15 $103 +$26 +25%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 15? Jun 15 $103 +$24 +23%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 15? Jun 15 $103 +$69 +68%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 15? Jun 15 $25 +$9 +37%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 15? Jun 15 $103 −$12 -12%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 15? Jun 15 $103 −$12 -12%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 16? Jun 15 $102 −$9 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on June 15? Jun 15 $25 +$6 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 82-83°F on June 15? Jun 15 $25 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $102 −$32 -31%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 14? Jun 15 $25 +$6 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 15? Jun 15 $25 −$3 -12%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 15? Jun 14 $26 −$15 -59%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 14? Jun 14 $102 −$5 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 14? Jun 14 $102 −$39 -38%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 72-73°F on June 14? Jun 14 $25 −$19 -75%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 14? Jun 14 $102 +$55 +54%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 14? Jun 14 $103 +$87 +85%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $104 +$15 +14%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 14? Jun 14 $103 −$27 -26%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 14? Jun 14 $103 −$11 -11%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 14? Jun 14 $103 −$4 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on June 14? Jun 14 $25 +$4 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 14? Jun 14 $25 −$21 -83%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 14 $25 +$8 +32%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 14 $25 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 13? Jun 13 $25 +$12 +49%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 12? Jun 12 $87 +$32 +37%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 12? Jun 12 $103 −$79 -77%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on June 12? Jun 12 $102 −$66 -64%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 12? Jun 12 $102 −$99 -97%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on Ju Jun 12 $103 −$101 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 12? Jun 12 $163 −$61 -38%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 11? Jun 12 $103 +$59 +57%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 11? Jun 12 $102 +$94 +92%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 17? SELL No 81¢ $60 35m
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 17? BUY No 79¢ $51 37m
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 17? BUY No 78¢ $51 37m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 17? SELL No 56¢ $31 42m
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 17? BUY No 74¢ $51 2h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 17? BUY No 73¢ $43 5h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 17? BUY No 67¢ $51 5h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 17? BUY No 67¢ $39 5h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 17? BUY No 47¢ $51 5h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 17? BUY No 69¢ $51 5h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 17°C on June 17? BUY No 66¢ $51 5h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 17? BUY No 49¢ $52 5h
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 17? BUY No 61¢ $51 5h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju SELL No 32¢ $34 9h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on June 16? SELL No 42¢ $34 12h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on June 16? SELL No 68¢ $57 13h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 16? SELL No 65¢ $71 16h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on June 16? BUY No 60¢ $51 16h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on June 16? SELL No 75¢ $55 16h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 16? SELL No 69¢ $58 19h
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 16? SELL No 65¢ $44 19h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 16? SELL No 14¢ $5 21h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 16? SELL No 80¢ $55 21h
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 16? SELL No 81¢ $48 21h
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 16? BUY No 72¢ $51 21h
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 16? BUY No 84¢ $50 21h
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 16? SELL No 82¢ $48 22h
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 16? BUY No 84¢ $50 22h
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 16? SELL No 82¢ $1 22h
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 16? SELL No 83¢ $47 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $558.72 · official $540.37 · 1481 history records