Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T22:03:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
BE 0xbea2…0401 crypto 59 markets active 0h ago coverage 124d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$5 (-2%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate51%30W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9
7 days+$7
14 days−$4
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 44% −$4
sports 33% +$9
weather 23% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -0.5% -10.0% 52% 52% -2.7%
≤30d 39 -7.5% -16.3% 54% 51% -12.3%
≤90d 43 -7.5% -16.3% 53% 51% -7.7%
all 59 -3.1% -12.4% 51% 47% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.4% 47% -8.4%
10% -20.7% 44% -17.2%
15% -28.4% 36% -25.2%
20% -35.4% 29% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

124d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses30 / 29
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)59 / 59
History coverage124d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 59 Trades
no open positions (18 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 22 $9 +$7 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 22 $35 +$21 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 22 $16 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 22 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 22 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 22 $1 +$1 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 22 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 22 $1 +$1 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 22 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 22 $3 +$3 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 22 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 19 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 09 $1 +$1 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 09 $1 +$1 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Lucknow Super Giants Apr 05 $43 −$12 -28%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals Apr 04 $46 +$19 +42%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Sunrisers Hyderabad Apr 02 $7 +$2 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Mar 26 $1 −$1 -68%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 50-51°F on February Feb 21 $5 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 44-45°F on February Feb 21 $3 +$6 +204%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 42-43°F on Fe Feb 19 $5 +$1 +29%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 48-49°F on February Feb 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 78°F or higher on February Feb 19 $10 −$2 -23%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 74-75°F on February Feb 19 $13 −$2 -16%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on February Feb 19 $3 $0 -7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $17 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $9 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET SELL Down 93¢ $56 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $35 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $16 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $10 11d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $2 11d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 128 history records