Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T22:31:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BE 0xbea1…dad3 other 8 markets active 2h ago coverage 19d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$9,765 (-33%) realized −$10,667 · open +$902
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -72% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -76% what you keep after slip
Net edge-76%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate14%1W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3,723per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit38%portable
Net worth$17,268now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$5,018
30 days−$9,767
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 93% −$7,122
politics 6% −$1,765
sports 1% +$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-75.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 7 -72.4% -75.1% 14% 14% -98.1%
≤90d 7 -72.4% -75.1% 14% 14% -98.1%
all 7 -72.4% -75.1% 14% 14% -98.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -75.1% 14% -98.1%
10% -77.5% 14% -98.3%
15% -79.6% 14% -98.5%
20% -81.6% 14% -98.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -100% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -72% · $-wt -100% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
6.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$94 vs −$1,643 · ×0.06 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage
Net worth$17,268
Realized−$10,667
Unrealized+$902
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses1 / 6
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)7 / 8
History coverage19d
Avg bet$3,723
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $16,366 $17,268 +$902 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $2,225 −$2,169 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5,584 −$2,777 -50%
Spread: Croatia (-2.5) Jun 17 $74 −$72 -97%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $3,114 −$3,077 -99%
President Trump to Attend USA Opening Match? Jun 12 $1,829 −$1,765 -96%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $102 +$94 +93%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $4,907 1h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $2,006 1h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $715 1h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1,050 1h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $2,284 1h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $5,895 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 11d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 14¢ $995 11d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 14¢ $38 11d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 14¢ $359 11d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 12¢ $84 11d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 12¢ $199 11d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 13¢ $513 11d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 13¢ $32 11d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $2,674 12d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 16¢ $2,673 12d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 17¢ $2,910 12d
Spread: Croatia (-2.5) BUY Croatia 2¢ $11 12d
Spread: Croatia (-2.5) BUY Croatia 2¢ $51 12d
Spread: Croatia (-2.5) BUY Croatia 1¢ $11 12d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $3,114 16d
President Trump to Attend USA Opening Match? BUY Yes 3¢ $51 17d
President Trump to Attend USA Opening Match? BUY Yes 2¢ $72 17d
President Trump to Attend USA Opening Match? BUY Yes 1¢ $51 17d
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) SELL Mexico 95¢ $196 18d
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY Mexico 49¢ $102 18d
President Trump to Attend USA Opening Match? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 18d
President Trump to Attend USA Opening Match? SELL Yes 10¢ $9 18d
President Trump to Attend USA Opening Match? SELL Yes 10¢ $10 18d
President Trump to Attend USA Opening Match? SELL Yes 10¢ $6 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $17,267.70 · official $17,267.70 (match) · 58 history records