Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T20:33:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
BE 0xbea0…e19d politics 961 markets active 0h ago coverage 402d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this
Total PnL +$1,822 (+16%) realized +$2,025 · open −$203
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +10% what you keep after slip
Net edge+10%after slip
Net WR68%break-even
Win rate75%546W / 186L
Drawdown6%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day7.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$3,114now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$18
7 days+$94
14 days+$390
30 days+$676
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 49% +$817
other 20% +$172
world 16% +$97
culture 6% +$139
economics 4% +$12
tech 3% +$73
finance 2% +$34
sports 0% +$2
crypto 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +68%
net ROI/market (all)+14.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 +17.1% +5.9% 85% 67% +5.6%
≤30d 146 +46.9% +32.9% 86% 78% +13.4%
≤90d 413 +26.6% +14.6% 75% 68% +10.9%
all 732 +26.5% +14.4% 75% 68% +12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +14.4% 68% +12.1%
10% +3.5% 53% +1.4%
15% -6.5% 38% -8.4%
20% -15.7% 27% -17.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +22% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +26% · $-wt +24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +27% → late +26% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$3 · ×1.16 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×3.41 per $1 lost it wins $3.41
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

402d coverage
Net worth$3,114
Realized+$2,025
Unrealized−$203
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses546 / 186
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions229
Markets (closed)732 / 961
History coverage402d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day7.1
Drawdown6%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 229 History 732 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will USD fall to 1.7M Iranian rials by June 30? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $334 $333 −$1 (-0%)
Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026? Yes 73¢ 59¢ $333 $268 −$65 (-19%)
Will Abdel Fattah el-Sisi attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? No 61¢ 85¢ $167 $230 +$64 (+38%)
UK Recession in 2026? No 56¢ 66¢ $103 $120 +$17 (+17%)
Will the Democratic Party win the TX-35 House seat? No 48¢ 40¢ $104 $87 −$17 (-16%)
Will Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? No 60¢ 60¢ $83 $84 +$1 (+1%)
Will USD fall to 1.6M Iranian rials by June 30? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $82 $82 +$0 (+0%)
Will the Republicans win the Montana Senate race in 2026? Yes 83¢ 74¢ $85 $76 −$9 (-11%)
Will Mishal Al-Ahmad Al-Jaber Al-Sabah attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? No 59¢ 60¢ $63 $63 +$0 (+0%)
SAVE Act becomes law by December 31, 2026? No 67¢ 78¢ $49 $58 +$8 (+17%)
Will "You Seem Pretty Sad for a Girl So in Love - Olivia Rodrigo" be the top Spotify album for 2026? No 79¢ 81¢ $53 $55 +$2 (+4%)
Will USD fall to 1.5M Iranian rials by June 30? No 68¢ 34¢ $106 $54 −$53 (-50%)
Will Gavin Solomon advance from the AK-AL primary election? No 72¢ 72¢ $49 $49 +$0 (+1%)
Will USD/BRL hit 7 (High) in 2026? No 87¢ 62¢ $66 $47 −$19 (-29%)
Will Sarah Elfreth be the Democratic nominee for MD-03? Yes 87¢ 81¢ $50 $47 −$4 (-7%)
Will an artwork sell for $150 million by December 31? Yes 80¢ 42¢ $79 $41 −$38 (-48%)
Will the U.S. 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage hit 5.70% (LOW) by December 31, 2026? No 65¢ 72¢ $36 $40 +$4 (+11%)
Will the Democratic Party win the FL-02 House seat? No 72¢ 84¢ $30 $35 +$5 (+17%)
Will Masoud Pezeshkian attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? No 61¢ 88¢ $24 $34 +$10 (+42%)
Will Mojtaba Khamenei attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? No 97¢ 98¢ $33 $33 +$0 (+1%)
Will Tom Homan be arrested before 2027? No 61¢ 80¢ $24 $32 +$8 (+31%)
Will the US federal government take a stake in OpenAI? No 74¢ 68¢ $32 $30 −$2 (-7%)
Will "The Fall-Off - J-Cole" be the top Spotify album for 2026? No 82¢ 69¢ $34 $29 −$5 (-16%)
Will the Democratic Party win the MO-02 House seat? No 78¢ 78¢ $28 $28 −$0 (-1%)
Will USD/BRL hit 6.75 (High) in 2026? No 80¢ 52¢ $39 $26 −$13 (-34%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 67 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Housing for the 21st Century Act become law this year? Jun 16 $20 +$3 +14%
Will Partido Liberal (PL) hold the most seats in the Brazilian Chamber Jun 16 $10 +$9 +90%
Will the Democratic Party win the TX-30 House seat? Jun 16 $18 +$3 +17%
Will another country recognize Somaliland by June 30? Jun 16 $5 +$7 +150%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 16 $15 +$1 +6%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? Jun 16 $19 +$5 +27%
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene be the 2028 Republican Vice-Presidential n Jun 16 $33 +$6 +19%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 15 $4 +$1 +33%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 14 $27 −$17 -64%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $7 −$3 -38%
Will the Republican Party win the NJ-05 House seat? Jun 14 $8 +$1 +16%
Will Amy Klobuchar win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Democratic primary Jun 14 $4 −$1 -16%
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? Jun 13 $48 +$2 +4%
Harris Dickinson announced as next James Bond? Jun 12 $1 $0 +44%
Will annual inflation be 4.0% in June? Jun 11 $3 +$1 +40%
Will Trump hug anyone at UFC Freedom 250? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Jack Schlossberg be the democratic nominee for NY-12? Jun 10 $3 +$1 +22%
Will the Democratic Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House Jun 10 $5 +$2 +43%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? Jun 10 $18 +$5 +28%
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of PNL? Jun 10 $15 +$6 +37%
Will Selena Gomez be one of Taylor Swift's bridesmaids? Jun 10 $7 +$2 +24%
Will Martin O'Donnell be the Republican nominee for NV-03? Jun 10 $110 +$29 +27%
Will Susie Lee be the Democratic nominee for NV-03? Jun 10 $50 +$13 +26%
Will Raul Ruiz advance from the CA-25 primary election? Jun 10 $112 +$10 +9%
Will William Timmons be the Republican nominee for SC-04? Jun 10 $9 +$1 +7%
Will George Clooney be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee? Jun 10 $20 +$6 +30%
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? Jun 10 $48 +$2 +4%
Will the Democratic Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House Jun 09 $4 +$1 +21%
Will the House pass a reconciliation bill by September 30? Jun 09 $98 +$23 +23%
Will Claude Mythos not be released by June 30? Jun 09 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Claude Mythos be released on or prior to June 9? Jun 09 $7 −$2 -25%
Will North Carolina use a new congressional map for the 2026 United St Jun 09 $5 +$1 +20%
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun Jun 09 $3 +$1 +35%
Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? Jun 09 $48 +$2 +4%
Will the US economy be overheating at the end of 2026? Jun 08 $3 $0 +12%
Will "Jeff Mahshie" win Best Costume Design of a Play at the 2026 Tony Jun 08 $0 $0 +143%
Will "Lesley Manville" win Best Leading Actress in a Play at the 2026 Jun 08 $0 $0 +99%
Will "Arthur Miller's beath of a Salesman" win Best Revival of a Play Jun 08 $0 $0 +99%
Will "Qween Jean" win Best Costume Design of a Musical at the 2026 Ton Jun 08 $4 +$2 +60%
Iran closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 08 $21 +$26 +126%
Will "Ragtime" win Best Revival of a Musical at the 2026 Tony Awards? Jun 08 $3 +$1 +46%
Will "Adam Fisher" win Best Sound Design of a Musical at the 2026 Tony Jun 07 $3 $0 +19%
Iran closes its airspace by June 22? Jun 07 $7 +$1 +11%
Iran closes its airspace by July 15? Jun 07 $8 +$11 +139%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $1 +$4 +434%
Will Bola Tinubu win the 2027 Nigerian Presidential Election? Jun 07 $159 +$47 +30%
Will the US federal government take a stake in Rigetti Computing, Inc. Jun 07 $30 +$14 +46%
Will the Republicans win the Minnesota governor race in 2026? Jun 05 $2 $0 +9%
Will "Ladies First" be the top global Netflix movie this week? Jun 05 $5 −$4 -96%
Will "Office Romance" be the top global Netflix movie this week? Jun 05 $9 −$9 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will James Clapper be arrested before 2027? SELL Yes 26¢ $2 15m
Will Micah Lasher win the NY-12 Democratic Primary by 5–10%? BUY Yes 18¢ $7 52m
Will the Housing for the 21st Century Act become law this year? SELL Yes 84¢ $0 1h
Will Mishal Al-Ahmad Al-Jaber Al-Sabah attend the US-Iran Signing Cere BUY No 60¢ $3 1h
Will Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY No 60¢ $3 1h
Will Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY No 60¢ $8 1h
Will the Housing for the 21st Century Act become law this year? SELL Yes 84¢ $14 1h
Will the Housing for the 21st Century Act become law this year? SELL Yes 84¢ $8 1h
Will Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY No 60¢ $7 1h
Will Steve Witkoff attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY Yes 58¢ $8 1h
Will Abbas Araghchi attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY Yes 74¢ $7 2h
Will Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY No 59¢ $71 2h
Will Mishal Al-Ahmad Al-Jaber Al-Sabah attend the US-Iran Signing Cere BUY No 59¢ $50 2h
Will Abdel Fattah el-Sisi attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY No 61¢ $140 2h
Will Mishal Al-Ahmad Al-Jaber Al-Sabah attend the US-Iran Signing Cere BUY No 59¢ $11 2h
Will Abdel Fattah el-Sisi attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY No 60¢ $8 2h
Will Partido Liberal (PL) hold the most seats in the Brazilian Chamber SELL Yes 88¢ $19 2h
Will Abdel Fattah el-Sisi attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY No 62¢ $11 2h
Will Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY No 61¢ $11 2h
Will the Democratic Party win the TX-30 House seat? SELL Yes 94¢ $11 2h
Will another country recognize Somaliland by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $12 2h
Will Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY No 62¢ $8 2h
Will Abdel Fattah el-Sisi attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY No 62¢ $8 2h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? SELL No 100¢ $16 2h
Will Masoud Pezeshkian attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY No 61¢ $24 2h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? SELL No 100¢ $24 2h
Will Saudi Arabia sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding? BUY No 61¢ $3 2h
Will Mojtaba Khamenei attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY No 97¢ $33 3h
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 30? BUY Yes 82¢ $5 4h
Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY Yes 82¢ $8 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,114.06 · official $3,109.85 (match) · 3104 history records