Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T18:49:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
BE 0xbea0…049c politics 42 markets active 2h ago coverage 1053d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$17,956 (+76%) realized +$17,952 · open +$4
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate41%17W / 24L
Whale WR75%big bets
Drawdown9%max
Avg bet$560per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$159now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$16
7 days+$16
14 days+$16
30 days+$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 92% +$18,310
other 6% +$122
crypto 1% −$350
world 0% −$110
economics 0% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-17.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +11.0% +0.4% 100% 100% +0.4%
≤30d 1 +11.0% +0.4% 100% 100% +0.4%
≤90d 1 +11.0% +0.4% 100% 100% +0.4%
all 41 -9.3% -17.9% 41% 39% +60.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.9% 39% +60.0%
10% -25.8% 29% +44.7%
15% -33.0% 24% +30.7%
20% -39.5% 24% +17.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 69% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% too few recent
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt +77% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 75% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -18% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1,270 vs −$152 · ×8.38 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.94 per $1 lost it wins $5.94
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1053d coverage
Net worth$159
Realized+$17,952
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses17 / 24
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)41 / 42
History coverage1053d
Avg bet$560
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown9%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House Yes 19¢ 20¢ $155 $159 +$4 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Kim Jong Un visit US in 2025? Jun 24 $145 +$16 +11%
US military action against Iran before April? May 01 $10 −$10 -100%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? May 01 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Trump impose tariffs on the EU in the first 100 days? May 01 $317 −$68 -22%
No change in Fed interest rates after March 2025 meeting? May 01 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Trump impose tariffs on France in the first 100 days? May 01 $760 +$112 +15%
Will a nuclear weapon detonate in 2024? Mar 10 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Kamala win New York by 10+ points? Mar 10 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Trump say "Epstein" on The Joe Rogan Experience? Nov 21 $27 −$27 -100%
Will a Republican win Nebraska's 2nd congressional district? Nov 21 $45 −$45 -100%
Will a Republican win Virginia Presidential Election? Nov 21 $50 −$50 -100%
2024 Balance of Power: R Prez, R Senate, D House Nov 21 $1,479 −$655 -44%
Will Trump win Florida by 12+ points? Nov 21 $50 +$200 +400%
2024 Balance of Power: R Prez R Senate R House Nov 15 $2,322 +$4,045 +174%
Will a Republican win New Mexico Presidential Election? Nov 13 $50 −$50 -100%
Will a Republican win Oregon Presidential Election? Nov 13 $26 −$26 -100%
Will a Democrat win Virginia Presidential Election? Nov 13 $128 −$128 -100%
2024 presidential election: GOP wins by 105-154 Nov 13 $150 −$150 -100%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 13 $100 −$100 -100%
Will a Republican win New York Presidential Election? Nov 13 $98 −$98 -100%
Will a Democrat win New York Presidential Election? Nov 13 $198 −$198 -100%
Will Donald Trump win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Electi Nov 13 $500 +$1,166 +233%
Trump wins every swing state? Nov 13 $2,100 +$6,774 +323%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 13 $10,000 +$8,121 +81%
Will Trump say "fake news" on The Joe Rogan Experience? Nov 05 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Trump say "border" 20 or more times on The Joe Rogan Experience? Nov 05 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Trump say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" on The Joe Rogan Experience? Nov 05 $100 −$100 -100%
Who will win the debate according to polls? Nov 05 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Will Trump say "Elon" on The Joe Rogan Experience? Nov 05 $100 +$8 +8%
Will Trump say "Kennedy" on The Joe Rogan Experience? Nov 05 $100 +$25 +24%
Trump fires campaign manager? Nov 05 $100 +$25 +25%
Will Trump say "tax" 10 or more times on The Joe Rogan Experience? Nov 05 $50 +$85 +170%
Will Trump say "trans" on The Joe Rogan Experience? Nov 05 $100 +$67 +67%
Will Trump say "vaccine" on The Joe Rogan Experience? Nov 05 $98 +$98 +99%
Will Trump say "fake news" at debate? Sep 11 $71 −$71 -100%
Will Trump say "Comrade Kamala" at debate? Sep 11 $250 −$250 -100%
Will Trump say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" at debate? Sep 11 $250 −$250 -100%
Will Trump say "Marxist" at debate? Sep 11 $171 +$97 +57%
Will Trump say "fraud" at debate? Sep 11 $250 +$390 +156%
Will Trump say "border czar" at debate? Sep 11 $750 +$161 +22%
Is the Room-Temp Superconductor real? Jan 18 $1,069 +$207 +19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House BUY Yes 19¢ $13 1h
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House BUY Yes 19¢ $146 1h
Will Kim Jong Un visit US in 2025? BUY No 90¢ $1 420d
Will Kim Jong Un visit US in 2025? BUY No 90¢ $99 423d
Will Kim Jong Un visit US in 2025? BUY No 90¢ $4 439d
Will Kim Jong Un visit US in 2025? BUY No 90¢ $1 442d
Will Kim Jong Un visit US in 2025? BUY No 90¢ $9 443d
Will Kim Jong Un visit US in 2025? BUY No 90¢ $19 445d
Will Trump impose tariffs on France in the first 100 days? SELL No 90¢ $5 447d
Will Trump impose tariffs on France in the first 100 days? SELL No 90¢ $89 447d
Will Trump impose tariffs on the EU in the first 100 days? BUY No 30¢ $69 455d
Will Trump impose tariffs on France in the first 100 days? SELL No 90¢ $425 457d
US military action against Iran before April? BUY Yes $10 461d
Will Kim Jong Un visit US in 2025? BUY No 91¢ $11 461d
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? BUY Yes 18¢ $50 461d
Will Trump impose tariffs on the EU in the first 100 days? SELL No 45¢ $249 461d
Will Trump impose tariffs on France in the first 100 days? SELL No 90¢ $67 461d
No change in Fed interest rates after March 2025 meeting? BUY No $4 464d
Will Trump impose tariffs on the EU in the first 100 days? BUY No 15¢ $25 468d
Will Trump impose tariffs on the EU in the first 100 days? BUY No 17¢ $23 469d
Will Trump impose tariffs on France in the first 100 days? BUY No 80¢ $250 469d
Will Trump impose tariffs on France in the first 100 days? BUY No 82¢ $511 470d
No change in Fed interest rates after March 2025 meeting? BUY No $8 470d
Will Trump impose tariffs on the EU in the first 100 days? BUY No 34¢ $200 470d
Will a nuclear weapon detonate in 2024? BUY Yes $50 580d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes $100 595d
Will a Democrat win Virginia Presidential Election? BUY No 12¢ $128 598d
Trump wins every swing state? BUY Yes 24¢ $2,000 600d
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 63¢ $2,000 600d
Will a Republican win New Mexico Presidential Election? BUY Yes 10¢ $50 602d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $158.65 · official $158.65 (match) · 176 history records