Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T04:39:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BE 0xbe9f…1280 crypto 30 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover
Total PnL −$9 (-0%) realized +$22 · open −$31
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate46%13W / 15L
Drawdown65%max
Avg bet$139per market
Trades / day15.7pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$402now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 87% +$239
sports 10% +$11
other 2% −$27
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-14.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -5.9% -14.9% 46% 46% -3.3%
≤30d 28 -5.9% -14.9% 46% 46% -3.3%
≤90d 28 -5.9% -14.9% 46% 46% -3.3%
all 28 -5.9% -14.9% 46% 46% -3.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.9% 46% -3.3%
10% -23.0% 32% -12.5%
15% -30.4% 25% -21.0%
20% -37.3% 21% -28.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +7% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -24% → late +12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$91 vs −$62 · ×1.47 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.27 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$402
Realized+$22
Unrealized−$31
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses13 / 15
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions1
Markets (closed)28 / 30
History coverage4d
Avg bet$139
Trades / day15.7
Drawdown65%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 28 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Down 34¢ 84¢ $100 $247 +$147 (+147%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Up 20¢ 16¢ $186 $155 −$31 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 21 $208 +$40 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 21 $209 +$39 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 21 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 21 $105 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 21 $310 −$8 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 21 $172 −$16 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 21 $314 +$50 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 21 $210 +$165 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 21 $131 −$125 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 21 $157 +$290 +185%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 21 $104 +$166 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 21 $106 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 21 $309 −$52 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 21 $104 +$135 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 21 $103 +$104 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 21 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 21 $103 +$82 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 21 $102 +$23 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 21 $73 −$70 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 21 $104 −$50 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 21 $52 +$26 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 21 $127 −$124 -98%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 1.5 Corners Jun 21 $20 −$16 -77%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $102 −$27 -27%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $224 +$36 +16%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 0.5 AND Tunisia vs. Japan Jun 20 $99 +$34 +34%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 17 $44 −$44 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 16 $16 −$4 -27%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $106 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $89 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $105 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $104 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $104 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $104 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $104 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $105 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $105 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $102 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $102 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $106 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $103 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $69 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $105 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $103 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $105 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $105 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $105 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $26 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $105 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $105 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $26 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $26 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $104 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $106 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET SELL Down 82¢ $245 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $105 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $401.92 · official $401.92 (match) · 78 history records