Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:04:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BE 0xbe9a…5278 other 16 markets active 2h ago coverage 99d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$161 (-13%) realized −$153 · open −$8
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate36%5W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$80per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit25%portable
Net worth$152now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$57
7 days+$57
14 days+$57
30 days+$92
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 66% −$174
sports 34% +$75
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-31.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +28.2% +16.0% 50% 50% +88.1%
≤30d 6 -12.5% -20.8% 50% 50% +20.8%
≤90d 12 -23.9% -31.2% 42% 42% -9.0%
all 14 -23.8% -31.1% 36% 36% -17.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -31.1% 36% -17.4%
10% -37.7% 36% -25.3%
15% -43.7% 21% -32.5%
20% -49.2% 14% -39.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 58% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -23% → late -25% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$42 vs −$34 · ×1.25 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

99d coverage
Net worth$152
Realized−$153
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses5 / 9
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions2
Markets (closed)14 / 16
History coverage99d
Avg bet$80
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? No 50¢ 46¢ $100 $93 −$7 (-7%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $60 $59 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A Jun 17 $43 +$67 +156%
Algeria leading at halftime? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $112 −$15 -13%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) May 30 $121 +$29 +24%
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia: Anytime Goalscorer May 30 $10 −$4 -36%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 20 $101 +$24 +24%
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-29? Apr 29 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-28? Apr 29 $36 +$54 +152%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-03-10? Apr 28 $44 −$44 -100%
Manchester City FC leading at halftime? Apr 28 $110 −$110 -100%
Spread: Manchester City FC (-1.5) Apr 20 $100 +$36 +36%
Backpack FDV above $500M one day after launch? Mar 17 $197 −$87 -44%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-11? Mar 11 $200 −$3 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $61 1h
Algeria leading at halftime? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 19h
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? BUY No 50¢ $102 24h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A BUY 38¢ $43 24h
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 54¢ $10 17d
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) SELL Arsenal FC 100¢ $150 17d
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia: Anytime Goalscorer SELL Yes 35¢ $6 17d
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia: Anytime Goalscorer BUY Yes 30¢ $10 18d
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) BUY Arsenal FC 80¢ $121 18d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 41¢ $94 18d
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-05-10? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 37d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 43¢ $102 40d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY Yes 80¢ $101 40d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-29? BUY Yes 41¢ $20 49d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-28? BUY Yes 39¢ $36 49d
Spread: Manchester City FC (-1.5) BUY Arsenal FC 73¢ $100 58d
Manchester City FC leading at halftime? BUY Yes 52¢ $110 91d
Backpack FDV above $500M one day after launch? SELL Yes 20¢ $110 91d
Backpack FDV above $500M one day after launch? BUY Yes 36¢ $197 97d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-11? SELL Yes 48¢ $197 97d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-11? BUY Yes 50¢ $100 98d
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-03-10? BUY Yes 56¢ $44 99d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-11? BUY Yes 48¢ $100 99d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $152.46 · official $153.47 (match) · 29 history records