Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:24:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BE 0xbe91…cd5b crypto 96 markets active 6d ago coverage 110d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$165 (-30%) realized −$165 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate42%40W / 56L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day3.8pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$31
14 days−$34
30 days−$191
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 81% −$93
other 18% −$96
politics 1% +$1
tech 1% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-32.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -63.0% -66.5% 12% 6% -52.9%
≤30d 96 -25.3% -32.4% 42% 32% -42.0%
≤90d 96 -25.3% -32.4% 42% 32% -42.0%
all 96 -25.3% -32.4% 42% 32% -42.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.4% 32% -42.0%
10% -38.9% 23% -47.6%
15% -44.8% 16% -52.7%
20% -50.2% 9% -57.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -37% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt -37% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late -32% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$5 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.27 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

110d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$165
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses40 / 56
Open positions0
Markets (closed)96 / 96
History coverage110d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day3.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 96 Trades
no open positions (15 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump post "Cuba" on Truth Social this week? Jun 15 $5 +$1 +22%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 12 $7 −$2 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 11 $6 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 11 $10 −$6 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 11 $7 −$3 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 11 $16 −$9 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 11 $9 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$1 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$1 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 10 $3 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 10 $1 +$1 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET May 31 $2 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET May 31 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET May 31 $2 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET May 31 $8 −$2 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET May 31 $3 +$1 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET May 31 $6 +$3 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET May 31 $5 −$1 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET May 31 $14 −$14 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET May 31 $8 −$3 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET May 31 $5 −$1 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET May 31 $15 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET May 31 $1 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET May 31 $3 −$2 -77%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET May 31 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET May 31 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET May 31 $6 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET May 31 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET May 31 $5 +$7 +137%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET May 31 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET May 31 $8 +$16 +192%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET May 31 $7 −$7 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET May 31 $8 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET May 31 $8 −$8 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET May 31 $8 +$7 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET May 31 $5 −$5 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET SELL Up 72¢ $4 5d
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $1 5d
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $3 5d
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET SELL Down 29¢ $1 5d
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $2 5d
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET SELL Up 38¢ $1 5d
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET SELL Down 9¢ $0 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET SELL Down 88¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET SELL Up 12¢ $0 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET SELL Down 1¢ $0 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET SELL Up 2¢ $0 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET SELL Down 34¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET SELL Down 3¢ $0 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $0 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET SELL Up 8¢ $0 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 6d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on BUY No 51¢ $3 6d
Will Trump post "Cuba" on Truth Social this week? BUY No 81¢ $5 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 446 history records