Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T10:03:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BE 0xbe8e…c44a politics 129 markets active 1h ago coverage 139d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,031 (-1%) realized −$1,032 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate24%31W / 97L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,044per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$872now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$14
14 days−$22
30 days−$44
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 50% −$76
other 31% −$44
sports 9% −$871
world 3% −$68
culture 3% −$3
economics 2% −$3
crypto 2% +$3
tech 0% +$2
finance 0% +$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 20 -0.1% -9.6% 10% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 62 -18.2% -26.0% 8% 0% -11.1%
all 128 +1.5% -8.2% 24% 10% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.2% 10% -10.2%
10% -17.0% 10% -18.8%
15% -25.0% 9% -26.7%
20% -32.4% 8% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
58% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,599) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +21% → late -18% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$16 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.31 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

139d coverage
Net worth$872
Realized−$1,032
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses31 / 97
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)128 / 129
History coverage139d
Avg bet$1,044
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 128 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $871 $872 +$1 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $2,404 −$3 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $4,241 −$4 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $2,687 −$3 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $1,620 −$2 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $1,467 −$2 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $1,685 −$2 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 07 $1,271 −$2 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 06 $2,847 −$4 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $1,653 −$2 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $1,692 −$3 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $4,034 −$5 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $1,476 −$2 -0%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in May? Jun 02 $445 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in May? Jun 02 $775 +$1 +0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 27 $1,964 −$2 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $642 −$1 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? May 26 $2,085 −$3 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $1,997 −$2 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 24 $1,036 −$2 -0%
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 23 $1,034 −$1 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $3,434 −$4 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $1,586 −$2 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 06 $1,614 −$2 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? May 06 $1,599 −$2 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $1,312 −$2 -0%
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $1,624 −$3 -0%
Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 02 $1,601 −$2 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April May 02 $325 +$2 +0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Apr May 02 $546 +$2 +0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 30 $2,347 −$3 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 27 $1,021 −$1 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 22 $1,037 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 22 $1,597 −$2 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 20 $2,119 −$2 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 19 $1,557 −$2 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 19 $2,504 −$3 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 18 $2,070 −$2 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 17 $1,596 −$2 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 17 $2,035 −$2 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $1,021 −$1 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 15 $1,306 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $1,030 −$1 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $2,486 −$2 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 12 $1,355 −$1 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $498 −$1 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 07 $456 $0 -0%
Panthers vs. Rangers Apr 07 $687 −$687 -100%
EdgeX FDV above $10B one day after launch? Apr 07 $34 $0 +1%
Spread: Club Atlético de Madrid (-2.5) Mar 24 $15 −$15 -100%
Spread: Hornets (-6.5) Mar 24 $13 −$13 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $592 1h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $593 2h
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $376 3h
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $376 4h
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? BUY No 100¢ $871 2d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,009 3d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,010 4d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,617 5d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,620 6d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $1,465 6d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $1,467 6d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,683 7d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,685 7d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,269 11d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,271 11d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,484 12d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,486 12d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,651 14d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,653 14d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,689 15d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,692 15d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,561 15d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,563 15d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,473 15d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,476 16d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $672 18d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $673 18d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $519 21d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $519 22d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $641 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $872.23 · official $872.23 (match) · 379 history records