Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:53:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
BE 0xbe8c…6c48 sports 140 markets active 2h ago coverage 144d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$58 (+2%) realized +$228 · open −$170
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%69W / 68L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$50est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$134
14 days+$136
30 days+$136
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 94% −$36
other 2% −$29
finance 2% +$6
world 2% −$45
politics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-5.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 +26.5% +14.5% 58% 58% +13.7%
≤30d 32 +25.2% +13.3% 56% 56% +10.6%
≤90d 131 +6.9% -3.3% 50% 50% -5.3%
all 137 +4.9% -5.0% 50% 50% -7.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.0% 50% -7.1%
10% -14.1% 47% -16.0%
15% -22.4% 42% -24.1%
20% -30.0% 36% -31.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$15 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

144d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$228
Unrealized−$170
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses69 / 68
Est. fees paid−$50
Open positions3
Markets (closed)137 / 140
History coverage144d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 137 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner 9z 22¢ 0¢ $79 $0 −$79 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs 9z 35¢ 0¢ $76 $0 −$76 (-100%)
Will 9z win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $54 +$14 +26%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $11 +$11 +98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $21 −$4 -19%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $15 +$5 +30%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $32 +$48 +152%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $16 +$23 +151%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $16 −$16 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $16 +$15 +92%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $16 +$20 +122%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $16 +$18 +113%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $31 −$31 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $68 +$23 +34%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $20 +$19 +92%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $21 −$21 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$8 -80%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $15 −$1 -5%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $15 +$26 +172%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $10 +$14 +133%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $21 −$21 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $10 +$15 +144%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $21 +$32 +154%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $10 +$8 +81%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Gaimin Gladiators (BO1) - IEM Cologne Jun 05 $15 +$5 +32%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs NRG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $15 +$7 +45%
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs Sharks (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $15 −$15 -100%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs Liquid (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: magic vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 05 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs THUNDER dOWNUNDER (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major St Jun 05 $11 +$36 +342%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 16 $48 +$62 +129%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs BC.Game Esports - Map 1 Winner May 15 $36 −$36 -100%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs BC.Game Esports - Map 2 Winner May 15 $36 −$36 -100%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs BC.Game Esports (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A May 15 $36 −$36 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs BC.Game Esports - Map 1 Winner May 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs BC.Game Esports - Map 2 Winner May 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Vitality (BO5) - IEM Rio Playoffs Apr 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Vitality - Map 3 Winner Apr 20 $30 −$30 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Rio Playoffs Apr 19 $11 −$11 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner Apr 19 $35 +$13 +38%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Apr 18 $35 +$14 +40%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Apr 18 $20 +$20 +101%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Rio Playoffs Apr 18 $20 +$12 +58%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Apr 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Apr 17 $60 +$9 +15%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Rio Playoffs Apr 17 $50 +$11 +22%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs HOTU - Map 1 Winner Apr 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Rio Group A Apr 13 $50 −$25 -50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 35¢ $78 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 11¢ $22 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 35¢ $60 2h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner SELL FURIA 48¢ $28 2h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 51¢ $31 2h
Will 9z win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $15 2h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner SELL 9z 31¢ $31 3h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner SELL 9z 78¢ $68 3h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 60¢ $54 3h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL 9z 34¢ $39 3h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 30¢ $31 3h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 26¢ $31 3h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner SELL BetBoom Team 21¢ $22 5h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 10¢ $11 5h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 67¢ $10 6h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 80¢ $20 2d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 2d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 42¢ $16 2d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 2d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 60¢ $15 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 42¢ $16 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 36¢ $16 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 39¢ $16 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY G2 44¢ $16 3d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 46¢ $16 3d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 51¢ $16 3d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 44¢ $16 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Team Falcons 60¢ $91 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.37 · official $0.37 (match) · 341 history records