Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:59:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BE 0xbe8b…517c other 271 markets active 1h ago coverage 70d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,780 (-7%) realized −$1,771 · open −$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate23%56W / 192L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$91per market
Trades / day5.9pace
Fees−$78est.
Kalshi-fit17%portable
Net worth$6,876now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$522
7 days−$438
14 days+$291
30 days+$355
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 83% −$221
sports 13% −$1,381
crypto 3% −$399
world 1% +$76
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-1.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 +48.2% +34.1% 16% 16% -32.4%
≤30d 105 +23.6% +11.9% 16% 16% -4.1%
≤90d 248 +8.6% -1.7% 23% 22% -20.1%
all 248 +8.6% -1.7% 23% 22% -20.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.7% 22% -20.1%
10% -11.1% 20% -27.8%
15% -19.7% 17% -34.7%
20% -27.6% 17% -41.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$137 vs −$50 · ×2.75 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

70d coverage
Net worth$6,876
Realized−$1,771
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses56 / 192
Est. fees paid−$78
Open positions22
Markets (closed)248 / 271
History coverage70d
Avg bet$91
Trades / day5.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit17%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 22 History 248 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 76¢ 75¢ $998 $982 −$16 (-2%)
Will Germany reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 78¢ 72¢ $989 $921 −$67 (-7%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $839 $909 +$70 (+8%)
Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 83¢ 84¢ $502 $510 +$8 (+2%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $450 $480 +$30 (+7%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 10¢ $300 $365 +$65 (+22%)
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 28¢ 30¢ $286 $312 +$26 (+9%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 13¢ $361 $281 −$79 (-22%)
Will Spain reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 33¢ 26¢ $341 $270 −$71 (-21%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $267 $256 −$11 (-4%)
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 25¢ 25¢ $254 $254 +$1 (+0%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 24¢ $154 $252 +$98 (+63%)
Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $196 $201 +$5 (+3%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $163 $173 +$10 (+6%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $100 $147 +$47 (+47%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $132 $119 −$14 (-10%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $125 $106 −$19 (-15%)
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $100 $96 −$4 (-4%)
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $100 $88 −$12 (-12%)
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $87 $77 −$10 (-12%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $62 $46 −$16 (-25%)
Will Michael Olise be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $80 $31 −$49 (-62%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 120 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $25 −$12 -46%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $14 −$5 -37%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $23 −$11 -49%
Will Julian Alvarez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $103 −$94 -91%
Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $103 −$86 -84%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? Jun 16 $103 −$100 -97%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 16 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Michael Olise win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $1 $0 +11%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $25 −$24 -97%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? AND Will IR Iran vs. New Jun 16 $5 +$153 +2970%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 2 Uruguay? Jun 15 $47 −$46 -98%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 3 Uruguay? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -97%
Will Spain reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $801 −$146 -18%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? Jun 14 $48 −$46 -96%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $50 +$235 +473%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 South Africa? Jun 11 $48 −$47 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $61 −$60 -98%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 South Africa? Jun 11 $38 −$37 -97%
Exact Score: England 3 - 0 Costa Rica? Jun 11 $51 +$280 +546%
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Costa Rica? Jun 10 $42 −$41 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 Nigeria? Jun 10 $31 −$30 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Nigeria? Jun 10 $41 −$40 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Nigeria? Jun 10 $51 −$50 -98%
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Costa Rica? Jun 10 $31 −$30 -97%
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Costa Rica? Jun 10 $51 −$50 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Iceland? Jun 10 $35 +$190 +549%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Iceland? Jun 09 $49 −$48 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Iceland? Jun 09 $51 −$50 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Iceland? Jun 09 $32 −$31 -98%
Exact Score: Peru 1 - 3 Spain? Jun 09 $51 +$506 +985%
Exact Score: Peru 0 - 3 Spain? Jun 08 $42 −$41 -98%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $9 −$9 -97%
Exact Score: Peru 0 - 2 Spain? Jun 08 $49 −$48 -98%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Northern Ireland? Jun 08 $68 −$67 -98%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Northern Ireland? Jun 08 $41 −$40 -98%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 08 $41 −$40 -98%
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 2 Colombia? Jun 08 $51 +$300 +585%
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 3 Colombia? Jun 07 $51 −$50 -98%
Exact Score: Morocco 1 - 1 Norway? Jun 07 $31 +$183 +596%
Exact Score: Morocco 0 - 2 Norway? Jun 07 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Morocco 3 - 1 Norway? Jun 07 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Morocco 1 - 3 Norway? Jun 07 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Morocco 2 - 2 Norway? Jun 07 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Morocco 1 - 2 Norway? Jun 07 $31 −$30 -97%
Exact Score: Morocco 2 - 1 Norway? Jun 07 $31 −$30 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Honduras? Jun 07 $31 +$157 +510%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Honduras? Jun 06 $21 −$20 -98%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $10 −$9 -86%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Brazil vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 06 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 8¢ $90 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 13¢ $103 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $308 2h
Will Michael Olise be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $3 2h
Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 22¢ $201 2h
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $14 2h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $9 2h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $12 2h
Will Julian Alvarez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $9 2h
Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $16 2h
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 25¢ $260 2h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 7¢ $103 9h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL 0¢ $0 9h
Will Michael Olise win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $1 9h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY 5¢ $101 9h
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 12¢ $25 14h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? AND Will Argentina vs. Algeria BUY 4¢ $101 35h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 2 Uruguay? BUY Yes 16¢ $47 36h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 3 Uruguay? BUY Yes 7¢ $51 36h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 15¢ $198 36h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $136 37h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $103 37h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $103 37h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $307 37h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? AND Will IR Iran vs. New BUY 3¢ $5 37h
Will Spain reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 63¢ $106 38h
Will Spain reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 66¢ $549 38h
Will Michael Olise win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 3d
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 3d
Will Germany reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 78¢ $995 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,876.24 · official $6,877.57 (match) · 527 history records