Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T01:56:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
BE 0xbe88…67a8 sports 1197 markets active 1h ago coverage 50d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Total PnL +$613 (+0%) realized −$2,739 · open −$2,307
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate55%654W / 532L
Whale WR54%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$163per market
Trades / day44.9pace
Fees−$2,495est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$7,222now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$300
7 days−$1,897
14 days−$10
30 days−$6,734
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$4,824
other 0% −$223
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-7.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 236 -2.3% -11.6% 51% 45% -12.7%
≤30d 727 -3.0% -12.2% 54% 46% -13.6%
≤90d 1186 +2.1% -7.6% 55% 50% -10.9%
all 1186 +2.1% -7.6% 55% 50% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover44.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.6% 50% -10.9%
10% ← realistic here -16.5% 44% -19.4%
15% -24.6% 38% -27.2%
20% -31.9% 30% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 54% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +6% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$101 vs −$129 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

50d coverage
Net worth$7,222
Realized−$2,739
Unrealized−$2,307
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses654 / 532
Whale WR (big bets)54%
Est. fees paid−$2,495
Open positions11
Markets (closed)1186 / 1197
History coverage50d
Avg bet$163
Trades / day44.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 1186 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5 Over 60¢ 100¢ $498 $826 +$328 (+66%)
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 12.5 Under 46¢ 69¢ $500 $758 +$258 (+52%)
Spread: Texas Rangers (-4.5) Boston Red Sox 69¢ 96¢ $500 $693 +$193 (+39%)
Spread: Texas Rangers (-3.5) Boston Red Sox 68¢ 92¢ $500 $680 +$180 (+36%)
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Texas Rangers 75¢ 94¢ $500 $623 +$123 (+25%)
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 10.5 Over 53¢ 58¢ $500 $552 +$52 (+10%)
Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5) Texas Rangers 65¢ 65¢ $500 $502 +$3 (+1%)
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 10.5 Under 42¢ 42¢ $500 $501 +$1 (+0%)
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 11.5 Under 65¢ 62¢ $500 $481 −$19 (-4%)
Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5) Boston Red Sox 44¢ 35¢ $500 $402 −$98 (-20%)
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 11.5 Over 57¢ 38¢ $500 $331 −$169 (-34%)
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 12.5 Over 52¢ 30¢ $500 $291 −$208 (-42%)
Spread: Texas Rangers (-2.5) Texas Rangers 51¢ 19¢ $500 $186 −$314 (-63%)
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-2.5) Boston Red Sox 13¢ 4¢ $398 $120 −$278 (-70%)
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Boston Red Sox 28¢ 6¢ $500 $118 −$382 (-76%)
Spread: Texas Rangers (-3.5) Texas Rangers 39¢ 8¢ $500 $97 −$403 (-81%)
Spread: Texas Rangers (-4.5) Texas Rangers 38¢ 4¢ $499 $59 −$441 (-88%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox Boston Red Sox 55¢ 42¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-23%)
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5 Under 46¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5 Jun 15 $377 +$186 +49%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 15 $100 +$27 +27%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-3.5) Jun 15 $502 −$502 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 11.5 Jun 15 $220 −$182 -83%
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5) Jun 15 $164 −$164 -100%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-4.5) Jun 15 $1,015 +$133 +13%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 12.5 Jun 15 $1,017 −$49 -5%
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) Jun 14 $18 +$6 +32%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 14 $391 −$326 -83%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 10.5 Jun 14 $64 −$64 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $113 −$113 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 14 $506 +$341 +67%
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-3.5) Jun 14 $100 +$26 +26%
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5) Jun 14 $100 −$100 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 14 $695 −$393 -56%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Atlanta Dream vs. Toronto Tempo Jun 14 $100 −$100 -100%
Washington Mystics vs. New York Liberty Jun 14 $305 +$38 +12%
Spread: New York Liberty (-10.5) Jun 14 $500 −$500 -100%
Spread: New York Yankees (-4.5) Jun 14 $163 +$82 +50%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 14 $201 +$70 +35%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Jun 14 $500 −$500 -100%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $480 +$342 +71%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 11.5 Jun 14 $100 +$36 +36%
Spread: Minnesota Twins (-3.5) Jun 14 $26 −$26 -100%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 9.5 Jun 14 $165 +$19 +12%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 10.5 Jun 14 $137 +$83 +60%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 14 $816 +$180 +22%
Spread: Chicago White Sox (-3.5) Jun 14 $9 +$11 +121%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 14 $36 +$4 +12%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $44 −$44 -100%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $15 +$35 +225%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 9.5 Jun 14 $100 −$100 -100%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 14 $500 +$239 +48%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $0 $0 +6%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $102 −$102 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets: O/U 10.5 Jun 14 $130 −$61 -47%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets: O/U 9.5 Jun 14 $56 +$97 +172%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 14 $17 −$17 -100%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 12.5 Jun 14 $100 −$100 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $501 −$501 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 14 $122 −$122 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5 Jun 14 $2 +$3 +158%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Germany (-4.5) Jun 14 $4 +$10 +276%
Spread: Germany (-5.5) Jun 14 $538 +$2,398 +446%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $512 −$512 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $127 −$10 -8%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $70 +$186 +266%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 75¢ $314 46m
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 65¢ $4 47m
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 34¢ $2 48m
Spread: Texas Rangers (-4.5) BUY Texas Rangers 37¢ $46 1h
Spread: Texas Rangers (-4.5) BUY Texas Rangers 37¢ $140 1h
Spread: Texas Rangers (-3.5) BUY Texas Rangers 60¢ $3 1h
Spread: Texas Rangers (-3.5) BUY Texas Rangers 57¢ $250 1h
Spread: Texas Rangers (-4.5) BUY Texas Rangers 45¢ $206 1h
Spread: Texas Rangers (-4.5) BUY Boston Red Sox 69¢ $4 1h
Spread: Texas Rangers (-4.5) BUY Boston Red Sox 69¢ $500 1h
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-2.5) BUY Boston Red Sox 13¢ $100 1h
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-2.5) BUY Boston Red Sox 13¢ $100 1h
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-2.5) BUY Boston Red Sox 14¢ $100 1h
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-2.5) BUY Boston Red Sox 13¢ $100 1h
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-2.5) BUY Boston Red Sox 14¢ $3 1h
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-2.5) BUY Boston Red Sox 14¢ $6 1h
Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5) BUY Boston Red Sox 47¢ $33 1h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 12.5 BUY Under 42¢ $1 1h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 12.5 BUY Under 43¢ $73 1h
Spread: Texas Rangers (-3.5) BUY Texas Rangers 28¢ $100 1h
Spread: Texas Rangers (-2.5) BUY Texas Rangers 39¢ $3 1h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 11.5 BUY Over 60¢ $2 1h
Spread: Texas Rangers (-3.5) BUY Texas Rangers 28¢ $100 1h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 12.5 BUY Over 53¢ $4 1h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 11.5 BUY Over 64¢ $161 1h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 12.5 BUY Over 58¢ $313 1h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 11.5 BUY Over 66¢ $100 1h
Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5) BUY Boston Red Sox 44¢ $187 1h
Spread: Texas Rangers (-3.5) BUY Texas Rangers 35¢ $17 2h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 12.5 BUY Under 42¢ $179 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7,221.84 · official $7,253.79 (match) · 3500 history records