Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T23:28:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
BE 0xbe86…ec62 sports 235 markets active 2h ago coverage 258d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,347 (+5%) realized +$1,159 · open +$188
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate45%98W / 121L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown80%max
Avg bet$107per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$261est.
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$3,534now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$56
7 days−$148
14 days−$50
30 days+$527
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 57% +$1,569
other 40% −$376
crypto 2% +$64
culture 0% −$92
world 0% +$74
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 -3.6% -12.8% 43% 38% -12.1%
≤30d 68 +5.1% -4.9% 41% 37% -4.0%
≤90d 114 -0.9% -10.4% 41% 39% -5.4%
all 219 -0.3% -9.8% 45% 43% -4.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 43% -4.1%
10% -18.4% 42% -13.3%
15% -26.3% 38% -21.7%
20% -33.5% 32% -29.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$85 vs −$60 · ×1.41 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.14 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

258d coverage
Net worth$3,534
Realized+$1,159
Unrealized+$188
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses98 / 121
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$261
Open positions16
Markets (closed)219 / 235
History coverage258d
Avg bet$107
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown80%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 219 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $250 $601 +$351 (+140%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $500 $487 −$12 (-2%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ $626 $482 −$144 (-23%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $150 $370 +$220 (+146%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $300 $339 +$39 (+13%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $200 $224 +$24 (+12%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $200 $189 −$11 (-6%)
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 0.5 Over 83¢ 100¢ $150 $181 +$31 (+20%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $200 $157 −$43 (-21%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $200 $148 −$52 (-26%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 58¢ 84¢ $100 $144 +$44 (+44%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $200 $142 −$58 (-29%)
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes $50 $37 −$13 (-26%)
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $80 $20 −$60 (-75%)
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes $100 $8 −$92 (-92%)
Will Michael Olise be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $40 $7 −$33 (-83%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 83 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $51 +$30 +60%
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $100 +$19 +18%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $151 −$3 -2%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $101 +$24 +24%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $101 +$29 +29%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $44 −$44 -99%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $30 +$20 +67%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $41 −$40 -98%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $172 +$7 +4%
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $61 −$34 -56%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 −$1 -1%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $41 −$40 -98%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $681 +$8 +1%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $71 +$118 +165%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $30 +$30 +97%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 +$21 +202%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $102 −$4 -4%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $201 −$69 -34%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $402 −$232 -58%
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $305 +$199 +65%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $101 −$5 -5%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $224 −$141 -63%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $101 +$66 +65%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $102 +$45 +44%
Christian Pulisic: 1+ assists Jun 13 $10 +$37 +357%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $122 +$133 +109%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $202 +$88 +44%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $153 −$42 -27%
Christian Pulisic: 3+ shots Jun 12 $51 −$50 -99%
Christian Pulisic: 1+ goals Jun 12 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $101 +$42 +42%
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main Jun 07 $102 +$98 +97%
UFC Fight Night: Brendan Allen vs. Edmen Shahbazyan (Middleweight, Mai Jun 07 $101 +$58 +57%
UFC Fight Night: Farés Ziam vs. Tom Nolan (Lightweight, Prelims) Jun 07 $101 −$100 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 03 $1,069 −$476 -44%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 02 $41 −$40 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 01 $82 −$53 -65%
Roland Garros ATP: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Matteo Berrettini Jun 01 $205 −$19 -9%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Diane Parry Jun 01 $102 −$49 -48%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Zachary Svajda Jun 01 $308 +$131 +42%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Andrey Rublev Jun 01 $408 +$537 +132%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Joao Fonseca May 31 $407 −$43 -10%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Pablo Carreno Busta May 31 $203 −$119 -58%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $101 1h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 0.5 BUY Over 83¢ $50 1h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 0.5 BUY Over 83¢ $101 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 62¢ $51 4h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 71¢ $149 4h
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 0.5 BUY Over 84¢ $100 4h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $151 4h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $44 32h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 77¢ $101 36h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 80¢ $101 36h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $103 37h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $154 37h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $30 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 38¢ $41 2d
Spread: France (-1.5) SELL Senegal 65¢ $179 3d
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 0.5 SELL Over 27¢ $27 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 54¢ $100 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 53¢ $101 3d
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 0.5 BUY Over 59¢ $61 3d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $41 3d
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY Senegal 61¢ $172 3d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $103 3d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $103 3d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $76 3d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $513 3d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $206 3d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $206 3d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $51 3d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $51 3d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $689 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,533.98 · official $3,534.15 (match) · 704 history records