Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:06:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BE 0xbe77…b4c4 sports 196 markets active 2d ago coverage 44d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$638 (-11%) realized −$443 · open −$195
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate46%87W / 101L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day6.6pace
Fees−$22est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$338now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$85
7 days−$160
14 days−$264
30 days−$266
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 40% −$453
sports 24% −$138
world 18% −$5
crypto 9% −$107
politics 5% −$31
finance 2% +$27
tech 2% +$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-22.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -35.1% -41.3% 29% 29% -44.4%
≤30d 104 -16.7% -24.6% 48% 46% -17.3%
≤90d 188 -13.9% -22.1% 46% 43% -17.8%
all 188 -13.9% -22.1% 46% 43% -17.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.1% 43% -17.8%
10% -29.6% 38% -25.7%
15% -36.4% 35% -32.8%
20% -42.6% 29% -39.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$16 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

44d coverage
Net worth$338
Realized−$443
Unrealized−$195
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses87 / 101
Est. fees paid−$22
Open positions7
Markets (closed)188 / 196
History coverage44d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day6.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 188 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ $100 $133 +$33 (+33%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 13¢ $100 $79 −$21 (-21%)
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 68¢ 73¢ $50 $54 +$4 (+7%)
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 62¢ 48¢ $60 $46 −$14 (-23%)
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 58¢ 62¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+6%)
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 22¢ 30¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+39%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 64¢ $200 $0 −$200 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 75 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Belgium leading at halftime? Jun 15 $30 −$30 -98%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $51 −$50 -99%
Fabián Ruiz: 1+ goals Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $30 +$17 +57%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $20 +$27 +134%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Norway win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $51 −$2 -4%
Dan Ndoye: 1+ goals Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $30 −$30 -99%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $10 +$11 +109%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $20 −$10 -48%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $30 +$13 +42%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 10 $10 +$9 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 10 $10 −$10 -99%
England vs. Costa Rica: England O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $10 −$10 -98%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 10 $150 −$56 -37%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 10 $10 −$10 -98%
Haiti vs. Peru: Both Teams to Score Jun 06 $10 +$12 +119%
Will Canada vs. Republic of Ireland end in a draw? Jun 06 $5 +$6 +108%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $51 −$50 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 215.5 Jun 06 $10 −$10 -99%
France vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 04 $10 +$12 +119%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 04 $10 +$13 +124%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Jun 04 $46 +$13 +28%
Will DR Congo vs. Denmark end in a draw? Jun 03 $10 +$4 +36%
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $10 +$8 +79%
Will Italy win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $10 −$10 -98%
Croatia vs. Belgium: O/U 1.5 Jun 02 $21 −$15 -72%
Will Wales win on 2026-06-02? Jun 02 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-02? Jun 02 $10 +$13 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 01 $5 −$5 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 01 $5 +$3 +57%
Türkiye vs. North Macedonia: O/U 3.5 Jun 01 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-01? Jun 01 $10 −$10 -98%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $140 +$60 +43%
Brazil vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 01 $5 +$9 +180%
Will United States win on 2026-05-31? Jun 01 $251 +$34 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET May 31 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET May 31 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET May 31 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on June 1? May 31 $41 −$40 -97%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) May 31 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET May 31 $5 +$4 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET May 31 $61 +$23 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET May 31 $16 −$10 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET May 31 $36 +$12 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET May 31 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET May 31 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Belgium leading at halftime? BUY Yes 49¢ $30 44h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 56¢ $51 47h
Fabián Ruiz: 1+ goals BUY Yes 28¢ $5 47h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 64¢ $20 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $30 3d
Will Norway win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 24¢ $49 3d
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 62¢ $61 3d
Dan Ndoye: 1+ goals BUY Yes 33¢ $5 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 42¢ $20 3d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 AND Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AN BUY 34¢ $20 3d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 60¢ $30 3d
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $10 4d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score SELL No 30¢ $11 4d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY No 55¢ $20 4d
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 22¢ $3 6d
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 68¢ $50 6d
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 58¢ $20 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $10 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $30 6d
England vs. Costa Rica: England O/U 2.5 BUY Under 47¢ $10 6d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Nigeria 52¢ $10 6d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 38¢ $90 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 47¢ $10 6d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 55¢ $20 11d
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 215.5 BUY Over 58¢ $10 11d
Haiti vs. Peru: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $10 11d
Will Canada vs. Republic of Ireland end in a draw? BUY Yes 47¢ $5 11d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 68¢ $30 11d
France vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $10 12d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-04? BUY Yes 84¢ $100 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $337.70 · official $337.33 (match) · 413 history records