Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T12:17:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BE 0xbe74…2890 crypto 93 markets active 2h ago coverage 162d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$18 (-0%) realized +$55 · open −$73
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate92%83W / 7L
Drawdown88%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$59now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$39
7 days+$40
14 days+$19
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 90% −$29
other 9% −$10
sports 1% +$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-8.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +40.7% +27.3% 67% 50% +7.8%
≤30d 23 +1.7% -8.0% 70% 39% -9.6%
≤90d 39 +2.5% -7.3% 82% 26% -7.5%
all 90 +1.3% -8.4% 92% 11% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.4% 11% -8.5%
10% -17.1% 9% -17.3%
15% -25.1% 7% -25.3%
20% -32.5% 3% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$27 · ×0.11 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.26 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

162d coverage
Net worth$59
Realized+$55
Unrealized−$73
Win rate (resolved)92%
Wins / losses83 / 7
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)90 / 93
History coverage162d
Avg bet$49
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown88%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 90 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 28? Yes 98¢ 99¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Yes 60¢ 58¢ $9 $8 −$0 (-2%)
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? Yes 91¢ 0¢ $73 $0 −$73 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $51 +$8 +16%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $50 +$31 +62%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 25? Jun 25 $50 +$1 +1%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $33 −$33 -99%
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 24 $15 −$14 -98%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $13 +$48 +365%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $37 −$37 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $49 +$24 +50%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 19 $19 −$19 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $30 −$30 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $25 +$8 +32%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 18? Jun 18 $50 +$6 +12%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $18 +$7 +40%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $49 +$20 +40%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $25 +$24 +93%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $24 −$24 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $33 −$32 -99%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $31 +$1 +4%
Will Ethereum reach $1,700 on June 10? Jun 11 $30 +$2 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 5? Jun 10 $27 +$2 +8%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 2? Jun 03 $26 +$1 +3%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 20? Jun 01 $51 +$1 +2%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May? Jun 01 $98 +$5 +5%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 19? May 20 $46 +$4 +8%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.40 and $1.50 on May 18? May 19 $47 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 17? May 18 $46 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on April 21? May 16 $44 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in April? May 16 $94 +$6 +6%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on April 17? Apr 21 $44 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 11? Apr 16 $43 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 9? Apr 11 $42 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 7? Apr 08 $42 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on April 5? Apr 06 $35 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in April? Apr 06 $76 +$25 +32%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on April 2? Apr 04 $111 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $150 in March? Apr 01 $54 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on March 31? Apr 01 $55 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on March 30? Mar 31 $55 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on March 29? Mar 30 $55 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on March 28? Mar 28 $54 +$1 +2%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on March 26? Mar 27 $54 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on March 22? Mar 26 $54 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 21? Mar 22 $54 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on March 20? Mar 21 $54 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 18? Mar 19 $53 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on March 17? Mar 17 $53 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on March 13? Mar 16 $53 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on March 12? Mar 13 $53 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on March 11? Mar 12 $53 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on March 10? Mar 11 $53 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 28? BUY Yes 98¢ $50 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 60¢ $9 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 86¢ $51 18h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 61¢ $50 2d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 25? BUY No 99¢ $50 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 60¢ $33 4d
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $15 4d
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $13 7d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $37 7d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $49 7d
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $19 9d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $30 9d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 75¢ $25 9d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 18? BUY No 89¢ $50 10d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $18 10d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $49 13d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $25 13d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 49¢ $24 13d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $33 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? BUY No 96¢ $31 16d
Will Ethereum reach $1,700 on June 10? BUY No 94¢ $30 18d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 5? BUY No 92¢ $27 23d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 2? BUY Yes 97¢ $26 26d
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? BUY Yes 91¢ $74 26d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 20? BUY No 98¢ $51 39d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 19? BUY Yes 92¢ $46 40d
Will the price of XRP be between $1.40 and $1.50 on May 18? BUY No 100¢ $47 40d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 17? BUY Yes 98¢ $46 42d
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May? BUY No 95¢ $98 42d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on April 21? BUY Yes 99¢ $44 68d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $58.70 · official $58.70 (match) · 179 history records