Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:35:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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BE 0xbe74…a70e sports 644 markets active 1h ago coverage 32d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 31d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (81 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$4,703 (-3%) realized −$3,192 · open −$1,511
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate42%244W / 339L
Whale WR71%big bets
Drawdown37%max
Avg bet$283per market
Trades / day81.5pace
Fees−$187est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$8,864now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 32d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 51% −$572
sports 33% −$232
other 9% +$373
crypto 2% +$43
world 2% −$91
finance 1% −$16
tech 1% +$5
culture 0% −$9
weather 0% −$5
economics 0% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (81 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-18.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 100 -26.9% -33.9% 47% 12% -10.0%
≤30d 525 -7.8% -16.5% 42% 12% -9.0%
≤90d 583 -9.8% -18.4% 42% 11% -8.9%
all 583 -9.8% -18.4% 42% 11% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover81.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.4% 11% -8.9%
10% ← realistic here -26.2% 9% -17.6%
15% -33.3% 7% -25.6%
20% -39.8% 7% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
73% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 71% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -8% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$9 · ×1.74 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.37 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

32d coverage
Net worth$8,864
Realized−$3,192
Unrealized−$1,511
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses244 / 339
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Est. fees paid−$187
Open positions105
Markets (closed)583 / 644
History coverage32d ⚠
Avg bet$283
Trades / day81.5
Drawdown37%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 105 History 583 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 50¢ 83¢ $2,250 $3,755 +$1,505 (+67%)
Will FalleN win a S-Tier event before June 30? No 87¢ 84¢ $1,469 $1,433 −$36 (-2%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 50¢ 17¢ $2,250 $745 −$1,505 (-67%)
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 11¢ 16¢ $181 $263 +$81 (+45%)
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score? No 95¢ 95¢ $242 $243 +$1 (+0%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 84¢ 100¢ $180 $214 +$34 (+19%)
Will "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" be said during the next Spider-Man trailer? No 97¢ 97¢ $188 $189 +$1 (+1%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in June? No 97¢ 94¢ $194 $188 −$6 (-3%)
Will G2 reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? No 95¢ 92¢ $190 $184 −$6 (-3%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 84¢ 81¢ $168 $163 −$5 (-3%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June? No 95¢ 81¢ $190 $162 −$28 (-15%)
Will Trump say “Dana” or “White” 5+ times during UFC 250? No 97¢ 98¢ $116 $117 +$2 (+1%)
Will the announcers say "Trump" during the England vs Croatia FIFA World Cup Match? No 91¢ 94¢ $100 $103 +$3 (+3%)
Will the Ethereum Volatility Index dip to 35 by June 30? No 93¢ 94¢ $93 $94 +$2 (+2%)
Will Valve add Cache to the Map Pool by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 98¢ $84 $85 +$2 (+2%)
Will Trump shake hands with an Iranian official by June 20? No 95¢ 96¢ $80 $80 +$0 (+1%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in June? No 99¢ 99¢ $79 $79 −$0 (-0%)
Will Jonathan Hofeller be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO? No 98¢ 99¢ $59 $59 +$1 (+1%)
Will FaZe win a Tier 1 event in 2026? No 88¢ 90¢ $55 $55 +$1 (+1%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? No 90¢ 54¢ $90 $54 −$36 (-41%)
World Cup: Most Player Goals Record Broken? No 95¢ 94¢ $47 $47 −$0 (-0%)
Will the Bitcoin Volatility Index hit 70 by June 30? No 90¢ 92¢ $45 $46 +$1 (+3%)
Will Trump say “Thank You” 5+ times during UFC 250? No 96¢ 98¢ $45 $46 +$1 (+1%)
Will Trump say "White House" during UFC 250? No 95¢ 55¢ $76 $44 −$32 (-43%)
Will ZywOo reach 36 HLTV MVP awards by December 31, 2026? Yes 51¢ 32¢ $67 $42 −$26 (-38%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 34 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will SpaceX IPO by August 31, 2026? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -75%
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "Maduro" this week? Jun 17 $0 $0 -4%
Will Mark Juncosa be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX' Jun 17 $60 $0 +0%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $735 on June 16? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will SpaceX acquire Cursor by September 30, 2026? Jun 16 $0 $0 +15%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 16 $22 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "Greatest" during UFC 250? Jun 16 $192 −$192 -100%
Will Trump say "Washington" during UFC 250? Jun 16 $59 +$1 +1%
Will Trump say "Ballroom" during UFC 250? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will Trump say "Fake News" during UFC 250? Jun 16 $1 $0 -6%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? Jun 16 $199 $0 +0%
Will Natus Vincere reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 15 $16 +$5 +30%
Will Trump say "Stage" during UFC 250? Jun 15 $40 $0 +1%
Will Trump say "Biden" during UFC 250? Jun 15 $39 +$1 +2%
Will The MongolZ reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 15 $37 +$2 +6%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $143 −$113 -79%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 15 $25,919 $0 +0%
World Cup: Highest Scoring Match Record Broken? Jun 15 $58 +$2 +3%
Will Natus Vincere make a roster change before July? Jun 15 $6 −$1 -21%
Will Lindsey Graham win the first round of the South Carolina Republic Jun 15 $2 $0 +15%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $5 +$3 +62%
Will turnout in the Texas Republican Senate primary runoff be between Jun 14 $59 −$1 -1%
President Trump to Attend USA Opening Match? Jun 14 $5 $0 +10%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 14 $6 +$7 +104%
Will there be a double Breen “Bang” during the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $36 +$14 +41%
Will Satanic be named Tournament MVP at BLAST Slam VII? Jun 13 $36 +$1 +2%
Will Ame be named Tournament MVP at BLAST Slam VII? Jun 13 $25 −$1 -4%
Will Collapse be named Tournament MVP at BLAST Slam VII? Jun 13 $616 −$5 -1%
Will Lindsey Graham win the first round of the South Carolina Republic Jun 13 $0 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 24°C on June 13? Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the close USD/JPY price at the end of 2026 be between 140 and 150 Jun 13 $3 −$1 -47%
Will the close USD/JPY price at the end of 2026 be between 150 and 160 Jun 13 $7 $0 -5%
Will the close USD/JPY price at the end of 2026 be between 160 and 170 Jun 13 $14 $0 -3%
Will the close USD/JPY price at the end of 2026 be between 170 and 180 Jun 13 $3 −$1 -15%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 12, 2026? Jun 13 $28 +$2 +9%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $94 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $344 +$16 +5%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $291 +$9 +3%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $4 $0 +2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $70 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $16 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 12? Jun 12 $67 +$2 +3%
Will Caleb Wilson be the 3rd overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? Jun 12 $3 $0 -0%
Will Vitality reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 12 $311 +$46 +15%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $1 $0 -0%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $1 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump say "White House" during UFC 250? BUY No 94¢ $38 1h
Will Jonathan Hofeller be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating Sp BUY No 98¢ $15 2h
Will Jonathan Hofeller be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating Sp BUY No 98¢ $25 2h
Will "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" be said during the next Spider-Man trailer? BUY No 95¢ $75 3h
Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 4h
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? BUY Yes 9¢ $4 5h
Will Jonathan Hofeller be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating Sp SELL Yes 0¢ $0 5h
Will Antonio Gracias be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating Spac SELL Yes 0¢ $0 5h
Will Trump say "White House" during UFC 250? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 6h
Will Trump say "Maduro" this week? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 6h
Will Trump shake hands with an Iranian official by June 20? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 6h
Will Trump shake hands with an Iranian official by June 20? BUY No 95¢ $80 6h
Will Trump say "Maduro" this week? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 6h
Will Trump say "White House" during UFC 250? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 6h
Will Trump say "White House" during UFC 250? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 6h
Will Trump say "White House" during UFC 250? BUY No 94¢ $38 6h
Will Falcons make a roster change before August? BUY No 77¢ $3 6h
Will Jonathan Hofeller be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating Sp BUY Yes 1¢ $0 7h
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? BUY No 91¢ $46 7h
Will Trump shake hands with an Iranian official by June 20? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 8h
Will Mark Juncosa be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX' BUY Yes 0¢ $0 8h
Will Antonio Gracias be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating Spac SELL Yes 1¢ $0 8h
Will Antonio Gracias be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating Spac BUY Yes 1¢ $2 8h
Will Mark Juncosa be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX' BUY Yes 1¢ $0 9h
Will Antonio Gracias be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating Spac BUY No 98¢ $115 9h
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 11h
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $735 on June 16? BUY No 0¢ $0 15h
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $735 on June 16? BUY No 0¢ $0 15h
Will "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" be said during the next Spider-Man trailer? BUY No 98¢ $36 15h
Will Trump say “Dana” or “White” 5+ times during UFC 250? BUY No 97¢ $42 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8,863.52 · official $8,863.51 (match) · 3500 history records