Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T09:34:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BE 0xbe73…fa44 crypto 181 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (89 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$97 (-4%) realized −$97 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate60%109W / 72L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day88.8pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 93% +$113
other 7% −$99
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (89 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 181 -1.2% -10.6% 60% 49% -8.9%
≤30d 181 -1.2% -10.6% 60% 49% -8.9%
≤90d 181 -1.2% -10.6% 60% 49% -8.9%
all 181 -1.2% -10.6% 60% 49% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover88.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.6% 49% -8.9%
10% ← realistic here -19.1% 39% -17.7%
15% -27.0% 34% -25.6%
20% -34.1% 28% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$10 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$97
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses109 / 72
Open positions0
Markets (closed)181 / 181
History coverage4d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day88.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 181 Trades
no open positions (35 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 26 $26 +$35 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 26 $26 −$10 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 26 $36 +$22 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 26 $36 +$44 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 26 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 26 $26 +$28 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 26 $26 +$24 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 26 $26 +$5 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 26 $26 +$36 +138%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 26 $26 +$5 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 26 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 26 $26 +$14 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 26 $57 −$37 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 26 $31 +$7 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 26 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 26 $15 +$12 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 26 $26 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 26 $51 −$3 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 26 $25 −$5 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 26 $7 −$1 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 26 $5 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 26 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 26 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 26 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 26 $5 +$1 +14%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $20 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 25 $2 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 25 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 25 $3 −$2 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 25 $2 +$3 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 25 $4 +$4 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 25 $12 $0 -1%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $81 −$80 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 25 $11 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 25 $11 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 25 $31 +$10 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 25 $31 +$6 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 25 $5 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 25 $5 +$3 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 25 $5 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 25 $5 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET SELL Down 36¢ $16 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $26 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $26 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET SELL Down 91¢ $59 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $81 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $54 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET SELL Down 90¢ $62 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET SELL Down 65¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET SELL Down 67¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET SELL Down 92¢ $39 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET SELL Down 3¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET SELL Up 33¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET SELL Up 71¢ $32 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $26 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 458 history records