Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T18:36:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
BE 0xbe6f…b760 sports 495 markets active 0h ago coverage 88d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,084 (-2%) realized −$609 · open −$475
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate48%230W / 254L
Whale WR59%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$135per market
Trades / day16.5pace
Fees−$879est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$895now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$412
7 days−$2,378
14 days−$867
30 days−$243
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 93% −$1,399
world 4% +$674
other 2% −$504
politics 1% −$249
crypto 1% −$133
tech 0% +$26
finance 0% +$26
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-13.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 66 +4.5% -5.5% 48% 48% -20.4%
≤30d 285 -1.8% -11.2% 49% 48% -9.9%
≤90d 484 -4.3% -13.4% 48% 47% -11.0%
all 484 -4.3% -13.4% 48% 47% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.4% 47% -11.0%
10% -21.7% 45% -19.5%
15% -29.3% 40% -27.3%
20% -36.2% 33% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 59% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -8% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$104 vs −$99 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

88d coverage
Net worth$895
Realized−$609
Unrealized−$475
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses230 / 254
Whale WR (big bets)59%
Est. fees paid−$879
Open positions11
Markets (closed)484 / 495
History coverage88d
Avg bet$135
Trades / day16.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 484 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner 9z 37¢ 52¢ $228 $321 +$93 (+41%)
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Yes 65¢ 59¢ $130 $117 −$13 (-10%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Yes 79¢ 47¢ $154 $92 −$62 (-40%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 48¢ 57¢ $72 $86 +$14 (+20%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? No 30¢ 28¢ $90 $85 −$5 (-5%)
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? Yes 61¢ 26¢ $183 $80 −$104 (-57%)
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? Yes 22¢ 6¢ $167 $46 −$121 (-72%)
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? Yes 32¢ 10¢ $99 $33 −$67 (-67%)
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? Yes 15¢ 10¢ $40 $25 −$15 (-39%)
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes 14¢ 4¢ $40 $10 −$30 (-74%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner FURIA 27¢ 0¢ $166 $0 −$166 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $322 +$184 +57%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $485 −$485 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 18 $244 +$52 +21%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 18 $103 −$103 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $41 +$99 +245%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $62 −$55 -88%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? Jun 17 $105 −$105 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $212 −$212 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $505 −$423 -84%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 16 $768 −$444 -58%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $200 −$200 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $262 +$237 +90%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $751 +$250 +33%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $164 −$164 -100%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $109 +$94 +86%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 15 $181 +$354 +195%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 15 $297 −$297 -100%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 15 $328 +$374 +114%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $198 +$162 +82%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $136 +$117 +86%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $238 −$59 -25%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $50 −$50 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $160 +$90 +56%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $337 +$168 +50%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $171 −$171 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $125 −$125 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $175 +$75 +43%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $287 +$165 +58%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $125 +$125 +100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $150 +$100 +67%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $478 +$339 +71%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $240 +$260 +108%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $50 +$450 +900%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $100 −$100 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $600 +$400 +67%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $500 +$249 +50%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $200 −$200 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $300 −$300 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $80 +$120 +150%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $300 +$199 +66%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $416 −$416 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $661 +$524 +79%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $416 +$164 +40%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $1,350 −$1,350 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $127 −$127 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $1,184 −$1,184 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $880 −$880 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $487 −$487 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $660 −$660 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $207 +$302 +146%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 54¢ $55 14m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 34¢ $177 28m
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY No 30¢ $89 53m
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY No 30¢ $1 53m
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? BUY Yes 65¢ $130 57m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner SELL FURIA 27¢ $22 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner SELL FURIA 27¢ $15 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner SELL FURIA 27¢ $54 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner SELL FURIA 27¢ $27 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner SELL FURIA 27¢ $5 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner SELL FURIA 27¢ $3 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner SELL FURIA 27¢ $11 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner SELL FURIA 27¢ $3 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner SELL FURIA 27¢ $20 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner SELL FURIA 27¢ $10 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 36¢ $2 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 10¢ $50 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 20¢ $7 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 20¢ $12 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 20¢ $4 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 20¢ $2 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 20¢ $25 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 30¢ $75 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 63¢ $124 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 63¢ $34 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 63¢ $322 3h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 30¢ $39 4h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 30¢ $1 4h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 30¢ $21 4h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 30¢ $14 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $894.94 · official $873.34 · 1856 history records