Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T22:48:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
BE 0xbe6a…ac9b crypto 11 markets active 1h ago coverage 130d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
Total PnL −$160 (-38%) realized −$122 · open −$51
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate12%1W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$59now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$79
7 days−$79
14 days−$79
30 days−$79
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 57% −$54
other 41% −$109
sports 2% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-36.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -10.9% -19.4% 17% 17% -47.9%
≤30d 6 -10.9% -19.4% 17% 17% -47.9%
≤90d 6 -10.9% -19.4% 17% 17% -47.9%
all 8 -29.8% -36.5% 12% 12% -56.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -36.5% 12% -56.4%
10% -42.6% 12% -60.6%
15% -48.1% 12% -64.4%
20% -53.2% 12% -67.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -42% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -30% · $-wt -52% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$67 vs −$27 · ×2.49 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.36 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

130d coverage
Net worth$59
Realized−$122
Unrealized−$51
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses1 / 7
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)8 / 11
History coverage130d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Yes 39¢ 38¢ $45 $44 −$1 (-1%)
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 1 Ecuador? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-3%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Yes 48¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 40¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Japan? Yes 20¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Down 45¢ 0¢ $27 $0 −$27 (-100%)
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Up 69¢ 0¢ $23 $0 −$23 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Japan? Jun 14 $20 +$67 +329%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Japan? Jun 14 $26 −$25 -98%
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $21 −$3 -16%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$8 -79%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $102 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Feb 04 $27 −$27 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Feb 04 $94 −$16 -18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 1 Ecuador? BUY Yes 16¢ $15 41m
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 39¢ $46 42m
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Japan? SELL Yes 88¢ $46 56m
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Japan? SELL Yes 81¢ $42 57m
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 19¢ $20 1h
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Japan? BUY Yes 20¢ $26 2h
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 1 Japan? SELL Yes 11¢ $17 2h
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 12¢ $21 2h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 0¢ $2 5h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 5h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $51 9h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 9h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 40¢ $102 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $27 130d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET SELL Up 83¢ $27 130d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $46 130d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET SELL Down 44¢ $3 130d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET SELL Down 45¢ $44 130d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $39 130d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET SELL Up 69¢ $11 130d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $10 130d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $59.01 · official $59.01 (match) · 22 history records