Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T06:06:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

BE
0xbe67…1203
world · 93 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
+$13 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$5 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses26 / 64
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions3
Markets (closed)90 / 93
History coverage326d
Avg bet$130
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%
Chart Positions 3 History 90 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$3
14 days−$7
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Yes 70¢ 82¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+17%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? No 56¢ 17¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-70%)
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-75%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $156 +$2 +2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $187 −$3 -2%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 13 $177 −$1 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $156 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $377 −$2 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 09 $49 +$1 +3%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $4 $0 -6%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $68 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $10 −$1 -7%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 06 $298 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $350 −$2 -1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 03 $518 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 02 $203 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma Jun 02 $7 −$5 -72%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 01 $5 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 01 $159 +$2 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 31 $158 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 29 $319 +$5 +2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 28 $385 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 27 $163 $0 +0%
Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 25 $85 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 23 $322 −$1 -0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 21 $24 +$2 +7%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 21 $38 −$5 -13%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 19 $26 +$2 +8%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $28 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? May 18 $3 $0 +3%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 15 $120 +$1 +1%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 15 $4 $0 -4%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 14 $144 +$1 +1%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $121 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $19 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 26 $302 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $142 $0 +0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 24 $5 $0 -6%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 24 $143 $0 -0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 24 $143 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 23 $145 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $143 +$1 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 22 $105 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $278 +$3 +1%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 21 $63 $0 +1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 20 $158 −$1 -1%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31? Apr 14 $145 −$1 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 14 $5 $0 +0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $144 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Apr 13 $304 $0 -0%
Netanyahu out by April 30? Apr 13 $163 −$1 -1%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 12 $282 +$1 +0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $144 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 37% −$10
politics 24% +$1
other 19% −$4
sports 12% +$2
crypto 3% +$1
finance 3% +$5
economics 2% $0
tech 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 68¢ $158 1h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 67¢ $156 6h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 16¢ $2 11h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 16¢ $6 11h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 22¢ $11 13h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 41¢ $68 16h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 41¢ $4 16h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 41¢ $46 16h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 41¢ $4 19h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 41¢ $29 19h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 41¢ $85 19h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 48¢ $156 25h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 48¢ $85 26h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 48¢ $72 26h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 43¢ $57 30h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 44¢ $59 32h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 45¢ $36 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 45¢ $140 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 45¢ $2 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 45¢ $174 3d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $5 4d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 4d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 4d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 57¢ $141 4d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 56¢ $19 4d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 56¢ $7 4d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 56¢ $113 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 78¢ $50 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 76¢ $49 5d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $4 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.7% -10.2% 29% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 28 -2.7% -11.9% 39% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 75 -1.1% -10.6% 31% 0% -9.6%
all 90 -1.7% -11.0% 29% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 0% -9.6%
10% -19.6% 0% -18.2%
15% -27.3% 0% -26.1%
20% -34.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.24 · official $0.00 (match) · 406 history records