Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T16:13:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

BE 0xbe66…27f3 other 23 markets active 1h ago coverage 27d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$352 (+18%) realized +$356 · open −$4

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +60% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +45% what you keep after slip

Net edge+45%after slip

Net WR82%break-even

Win rate82%14W / 3L

Drawdown11%max

Avg bet$87per market

Trades / day1.0pace

Kalshi-fit48%portable

Net worth$196now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$87

7 days+$677

14 days+$771

30 days+$884

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +82%

net ROI/market (all)+45.2%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	14	+58.4%	+43.3%	79%	79%	+68.2%
≤30d	17	+60.5%	+45.2%	82%	82%	+64.2%
≤90d	17	+60.5%	+45.2%	82%	82%	+64.2%
all	17	+60.5%	+45.2%	82%	82%	+64.2%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover1.0 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+45.2%	82%	+64.2%
10%	+31.3%	82%	+48.4%
15%	+18.7%	76%	+34.1%
20%	+7.0%	53%	+21.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 37% · top 2 58% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +81% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +61% · $-wt +81% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +112% → late +15% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$73 vs −$47 · ×1.56 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×7.3 per $1 lost it wins $7.3

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

27d coverage

Net worth$196

Realized+$356

Unrealized−$4

Win rate (resolved)82%

Wins / losses14 / 3

Open positions2

Markets (closed)17 / 23

History coverage27d

Avg bet$87

Trades / day1.0

Drawdown11%

Kalshi-fit48%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 17 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29?	Yes	45¢	46¢	$100	$101	+$1 (+1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27?	Yes	52¢	50¢	$100	$95	−$5 (-5%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET	Jun 27	$31	+$31	+99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET	Jun 27	$31	−$30	-96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET	Jun 27	$51	+$19	+38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET	Jun 27	$25	+$9	+34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	Jun 27	$26	+$13	+50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	Jun 27	$105	−$105	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET	Jun 27	$5	+$8	+152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	Jun 27	$26	+$16	+62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET	Jun 27	$5	−$5	-94%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?	Jun 27	$101	+$71	+70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET	Jun 26	$26	+$15	+60%
Will France win on 2026-06-26?	Jun 26	$101	+$46	+45%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND	Jun 25	$102	+$377	+368%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 22	$153	+$213	+140%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$101	+$44	+44%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$101	+$50	+50%
Will Finland win the 2026 IIHF World Championship?	Jun 01	$96	+$112	+118%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET	BUY Down	46¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET	BUY Down	49¢	$26	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET	BUY Up	33¢	$26	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET	BUY Up	35¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET	BUY Up	75¢	$25	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET	BUY Up	68¢	$26	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET	BUY Up	73¢	$25	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	BUY Down	65¢	$26	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	BUY Down	23¢	$105	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET	BUY Down	38¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	BUY Up	60¢	$26	3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET	BUY Down	9¢	$5	3h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? AND Will England win on 2026-06-27? AND	BUY	45¢	$200	3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET	BUY Down	61¢	$26	19h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	58¢	$101	20h
Will France win on 2026-06-26?	SELL Yes	87¢	$147	20h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29?	BUY Yes	45¢	$102	24h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27?	BUY Yes	52¢	$101	24h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? AND	BUY	21¢	$99	24h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? AND	BUY	16¢	$100	29h
Will France win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	59¢	$101	3d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND	BUY	21¢	$102	4d
Will France win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	BUY	29¢	$306	4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY	41¢	$153	10d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	69¢	$101	10d
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	66¢	$101	10d
Will Finland win the 2026 IIHF World Championship?	BUY Yes	45¢	$96	26d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $196.30 · official $587.19 · 42 history records