Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T23:46:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

BE 0xbe64…774d crypto 11 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover

Total PnL −$19 (-1%) realized −$19 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip

Net edge-16%after slip

Net WR73%break-even

Win rate91%10W / 1L

Drawdown41%max

Avg bet$197per market

Trades / day35.0pace

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +73%

net ROI/market (all)-1.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	11	+9.4%	-1.0%	91%	73%	+0.8%
≤30d	11	+9.4%	-1.0%	91%	73%	+0.8%
≤90d	11	+9.4%	-1.0%	91%	73%	+0.8%
all	11	+9.4%	-1.0%	91%	73%	+0.8%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover35.0 tr/day

realistic slip~13%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	-1.0%	73%	+0.8%
10% ← realistic here	-10.5%	45%	-8.9%
15%	-19.1%	0%	-17.7%
20%	-27.1%	0%	-25.8%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 31% · top 2 53% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

20% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +9% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$35 vs −$101 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×3.44 per $1 lost it wins $3.44

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized−$19

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)91%

Wins / losses10 / 1

Open positions0

Markets (closed)11 / 11

History coverage1d

Avg bet$197

Trades / day35.0

Drawdown41%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 11 Trades

no open positions

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET	Jun 21	$102	+$29	+29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET	Jun 21	$126	+$11	+9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	Jun 21	$305	+$77	+25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET	Jun 21	$601	+$2	+0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET	Jun 21	$101	−$101	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET	Jun 21	$15	+$4	+23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET	Jun 21	$305	+$107	+35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET	Jun 21	$101	+$23	+22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET	Jun 21	$252	+$27	+11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET	Jun 21	$206	+$56	+27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	Jun 21	$51	+$11	+22%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET	SELL Up	99¢	$131	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET	BUY Up	76¢	$102	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET	SELL Down	99¢	$137	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET	BUY Down	97¢	$100	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET	BUY Down	71¢	$26	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	SELL Up	99¢	$382	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	BUY Up	79¢	$101	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	BUY Up	79¢	$101	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	BUY Up	75¢	$102	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET	SELL Down	99¢	$603	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET	BUY Down	99¢	$100	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET	BUY Down	99¢	$100	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET	BUY Down	99¢	$100	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET	BUY Down	99¢	$100	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET	BUY Down	98¢	$100	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET	BUY Down	97¢	$100	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET	BUY Down	87¢	$101	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET	BUY Up	86¢	$5	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET	BUY Up	79¢	$5	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET	BUY Up	76¢	$5	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET	BUY Up	91¢	$101	3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET	BUY Up	67¢	$102	3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET	BUY Up	65¢	$102	3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET	SELL Down	99¢	$124	3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET	BUY Down	80¢	$101	3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET	BUY Up	80¢	$25	3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET	BUY Up	99¢	$25	3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET	BUY Up	92¢	$101	3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET	BUY Up	88¢	$101	3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET	SELL Up	71¢	$262	3h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 39 history records