Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T20:26:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
BE 0xbe62…d98a crypto 38 markets active 2h ago coverage 13d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$121 (-15%) realized −$121 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -36% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip
Net edge-44%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate32%12W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day6.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$90
7 days−$90
14 days−$203
30 days−$203
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 89% −$136
economics 11% −$67
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-41.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -13.2% -21.5% 48% 43% -23.9%
≤30d 38 -35.8% -41.9% 32% 26% -32.2%
≤90d 38 -35.8% -41.9% 32% 26% -32.2%
all 38 -35.8% -41.9% 32% 26% -32.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -41.9% 26% -32.2%
10% -47.5% 21% -38.7%
15% -52.6% 18% -44.6%
20% -57.2% 13% -50.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 54% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -27% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -36% · $-wt -27% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -64% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$14 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$121
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses12 / 26
Open positions0
Markets (closed)38 / 38
History coverage13d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day6.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 38 Trades
no open positions (13 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 23 $29 −$28 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 23 $26 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 23 $21 +$3 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 23 $42 +$5 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 23 $79 −$75 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 23 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 23 $52 +$29 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 23 $26 −$12 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 23 $37 +$10 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 23 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 23 $21 +$19 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 23 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 23 $32 +$9 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 23 $11 +$10 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 23 $53 +$59 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 23 $26 +$11 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 23 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 23 $10 −$3 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$2 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 14 $19 −$9 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 14 $11 +$5 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 14 $4 $0 -3%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 14 $16 −$10 -64%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 14 $42 −$27 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 14 $21 −$10 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 14 $11 −$2 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 10 $23 −$21 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 10 $26 −$5 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 10 $26 +$1 +3%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 10 $10 −$10 -95%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 10 $21 −$20 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET SELL Up 48¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET SELL Down 23¢ $24 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET SELL Up 19¢ $22 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET SELL Down 72¢ $24 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $27 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET SELL Up 49¢ $81 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $52 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $27 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET SELL Up 14¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET SELL Up 26¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET SELL Up 12¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET SELL Down 56¢ $41 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET SELL Down 35¢ $40 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $11 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 97 history records