Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T01:49:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
BE 0xbe5d…1a9e other 5 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$48 (-19%) realized −$137 · open +$89
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate50%2W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$189now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 60% +$102
other 40% −$49
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-26.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -18.6% -26.4% 50% 25% -31.2%
≤30d 4 -18.6% -26.4% 50% 25% -31.2%
≤90d 4 -18.6% -26.4% 50% 25% -31.2%
all 4 -18.6% -26.4% 50% 25% -31.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.4% 25% -31.2%
10% -33.4% 25% -37.8%
15% -39.9% 0% -43.8%
20% -45.8% 0% -49.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 99% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% too few recent
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$25 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.28 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$189
Realized−$137
Unrealized+$89
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses2 / 2
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)4 / 5
History coverage5d
Avg bet$50
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Over 53¢ 100¢ $100 $189 +$89 (+89%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $48 +$14 +29%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? Jun 18 $50 −$49 -99%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? Jun 18 $49 $0 +0%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $1 $0 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $62 1h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 77¢ $48 1h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $101 2h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? BUY Yes 74¢ $50 4d
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? SELL No 72¢ $50 4d
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? BUY No 71¢ $49 4d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 89¢ $1 4d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 91¢ $1 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $188.58 · official $188.58 (match) · 8 history records