Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T07:32:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
BE 0xbe5d…fa9b crypto 73 markets active 1h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$343 (+8%) realized +$343 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate37%26W / 44L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$62per market
Trades / day17.0pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$52
7 days+$206
14 days+$205
30 days+$205
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 54% +$404
other 27% −$201
sports 17% +$31
world 2% −$28
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-31.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 68 -24.9% -32.1% 37% 35% -4.4%
≤30d 70 -23.8% -31.0% 37% 36% -4.7%
≤90d 70 -23.8% -31.0% 37% 36% -4.7%
all 70 -23.8% -31.0% 37% 36% -4.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -31.0% 36% -4.7%
10% -37.6% 31% -13.8%
15% -43.7% 29% -22.2%
20% -49.2% 23% -29.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -28% → late -20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$67 vs −$35 · ×1.92 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.13 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$343
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses26 / 44
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions1
Markets (closed)70 / 73
History coverage8d
Avg bet$62
Trades / day17.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 70 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 31 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 20 $128 +$65 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 20 $128 +$62 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 20 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 20 $51 −$4 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 20 $26 −$6 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 20 $26 +$29 +111%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 20 $26 −$23 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 20 $104 +$115 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 20 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 20 $25 +$4 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 20 $26 −$21 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 20 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 20 $105 +$126 +120%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 20 $105 −$105 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 20 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 20 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 20 $11 −$10 -94%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $20 +$12 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -95%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Luis Díaz: 1+ goals Jun 18 $25 +$37 +146%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $25 +$7 +29%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Jun 17 $25 +$30 +116%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $31 −$31 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $51 +$27 +54%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $25 +$24 +93%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 16 $25 −$20 -78%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $51 +$25 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 16 $180 +$386 +215%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 16 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 16 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 16 $237 +$259 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 16 $31 −$29 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 16 $84 −$84 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 16 $53 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 16 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $52 +$7 +14%
ITF Taipei: Chia Yi Tsao vs Sakura Hosogi Jun 16 $26 +$9 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -94%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $69 +$48 +70%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $97 −$28 -29%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $61 +$110 +180%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $234 +$155 +66%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $365 −$130 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 15 $102 +$41 +40%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 22¢ $20 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $26 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET SELL Down 76¢ $101 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $102 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $101 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET SELL Up 62¢ $40 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET SELL Up 40¢ $26 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET SELL Up 40¢ $1 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $26 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $26 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $25 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET SELL Up 39¢ $19 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET SELL Up 17¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET SELL Up 26¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET SELL Up 80¢ $24 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET SELL Up 6¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET SELL Up 84¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET SELL Up 84¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET SELL Up 84¢ $34 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET SELL Up 84¢ $35 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET SELL Up 84¢ $22 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET SELL Down 13¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $26 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.96 · official $20.96 · 173 history records