Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T06:26:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BE 0xbe5c…29ac other 44 markets active 2h ago coverage 616d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$34 (-1%) realized −$34 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate16%7W / 36L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$102per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$26now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 81% −$19
other 14% −$2
sports 2% −$14
crypto 1% $0
economics 1% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.0% -9.5% 33% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 14 +6.6% -3.6% 29% 7% -4.9%
≤90d 33 -3.3% -12.5% 18% 3% -10.8%
all 43 -2.8% -12.0% 16% 2% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.0% 2% -10.2%
10% -20.4% 2% -18.8%
15% -28.1% 2% -26.7%
20% -35.2% 2% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 93% · top 2 98% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.19 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

616d coverage
Net worth$26
Realized−$34
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)16%
Wins / losses7 / 36
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)43 / 44
History coverage616d
Avg bet$102
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 43 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $26 $26 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 17 $28 $0 +0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Jun 14 $7 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $6 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $8 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $5 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? Jun 05 $11 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $130 in May? Jun 05 $17 $0 +0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 28 $10 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 27 $10 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $10 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 22 $10 $0 -0%
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels May 22 $8 +$8 +93%
Will Kemi Badenoch be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in May 21 $10 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 20 $10 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 19 $10 $0 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 18 $38 $0 -0%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 18 $12 −$12 -100%
Knicks vs. 76ers May 11 $8 −$8 -100%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $51 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $56 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 06 $54 $0 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $56 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 01 $52 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 30 $51 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? Apr 27 $52 $0 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? Apr 21 $55 $0 -0%
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 21 $57 $0 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 20 $52 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $56 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $52 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 18 $57 $0 -0%
Will Solana reach $160 in March? Apr 06 $4 $0 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 27 $8 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? Mar 06 $15 $0 +3%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 07 $2 $0 -1%
Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Sep 18 $32 −$1 -3%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 11 $35 $0 -0%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 28 $22 −$1 -4%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2025 NBA Finals? Feb 15 $16 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? Jan 10 $374 −$3 -1%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Oct 31 $1,026 −$2 -0%
Kamala Harris wins the popular vote? Oct 28 $911 −$11 -1%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Oct 27 $1,085 −$3 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? BUY No 100¢ $26 1h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 100¢ $28 2d
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? SELL No 100¢ $7 4d
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY No 100¢ $7 5d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $6 6d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $6 6d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $8 11d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $8 12d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $5 13d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $5 13d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $10 21d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $10 21d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $11 22d
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on SELL No 100¢ $10 22d
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on BUY No 100¢ $10 22d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $10 23d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $10 23d
Will Solana reach $130 in May? BUY No 100¢ $17 27d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $10 27d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $10 27d
Will Kemi Badenoch be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in SELL No 100¢ $10 28d
Will Kemi Badenoch be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY No 100¢ $10 28d
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Athletics 51¢ $8 29d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $10 29d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $10 29d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $10 30d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $10 30d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $38 31d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $38 31d
Cavaliers vs. Pistons BUY Pistons 62¢ $12 36d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26.41 · official $26.41 (match) · 303 history records