Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T08:31:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
BE 0xbe5a…fd4c other 4 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$70 (+11%) realized +$70 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +6% what you keep after slip
Net edge+6%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate50%2W / 2L
Drawdown2%max
Avg bet$158per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% +$64
world 40% −$1
politics 10% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)+6.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +23.7% +11.9% 67% 33% +5.6%
≤30d 4 +17.7% +6.5% 50% 25% -0.6%
≤90d 4 +17.7% +6.5% 50% 25% -0.6%
all 4 +17.7% +6.5% 50% 25% -0.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +6.5% 25% -0.6%
10% -3.7% 25% -10.2%
15% -13.0% 25% -18.8%
20% -21.5% 25% -26.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 67% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% too few recent
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +18% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$1 · ×25.88 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×25.88 per $1 lost it wins $25.88
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$70
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses2 / 2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)4 / 4
History coverage7d
Avg bet$158
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown2%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 4 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Milei out as President of Argentina before 2027? Jun 19 $62 −$1 -2%
US x China tariff agreement by June 30? Jun 19 $67 +$43 +65%
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $249 +$21 +8%
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $254 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 14 history records