Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T07:57:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
BE 0xbe57…53c6 crypto 635 markets active 1h ago coverage 120d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$331 (-11%) realized −$331 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate45%284W / 351L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day15.9pace
Fees−$22est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$40
7 days−$117
14 days−$156
30 days−$256
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 63% −$237
sports 35% −$151
other 3% −$55
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-16.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 103 -16.0% -24.0% 38% 37% -39.1%
≤30d 275 -14.8% -22.9% 37% 36% -29.5%
≤90d 466 -8.9% -17.5% 41% 40% -25.9%
all 635 -8.0% -16.8% 45% 43% -23.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.8% 43% -23.1%
10% -24.7% 41% -30.5%
15% -32.0% 38% -37.2%
20% -38.7% 30% -43.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -18% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$4 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

120d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$331
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses284 / 351
Est. fees paid−$22
Open positions0
Markets (closed)635 / 635
History coverage120d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day15.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 635 Trades
no open positions (10 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 16 $8 −$4 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$3 +147%
Parma: Franco Agamenone vs Stefano Napolitano Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -95%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $3 −$3 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $7 −$7 -99%
Nottingham 2: Darwin Blanch vs Zhizhen Zhang Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Parma: Sebastian Ofner vs Raul Brancaccio Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Nottingham 2: Tristan Boyer vs Jay Clarke Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
HSBC Championships: Botic van de Zandschulp vs Harry Wendelken Jun 15 $2 $0 +14%
Nottingham 2: Luca Nardi vs Remy Bertola Jun 15 $6 +$6 +108%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs South Africa Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Scotland vs Ireland Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 13 $3 +$1 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$1 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$3 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 13 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$3 -85%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Sri Lanka Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$2 +163%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Maxim Mrva Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $1 +$2 +224%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +84%
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Marco Cecchinato Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Lyon: Dali Blanch vs David Jorda Sanchis Jun 12 $4 +$9 +200%
Libema Open: Zhizhen Zhang vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 12 $2 $0 -3%
Stuttgart Open: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Alexander Bublik Jun 12 $1 $0 -9%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $3 +$2 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -60%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -55%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 11 $3 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$2 +84%
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic Jun 11 $1 −$1 -57%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET SELL Down 35¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET SELL Up 62¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET SELL Up 86¢ $10 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $2 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET SELL Down 41¢ $5 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $1 13h
Parma: Franco Agamenone vs Stefano Napolitano BUY Franco Agamenone 33¢ $2 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET SELL Up 60¢ $2 13h
Parma: Franco Agamenone vs Stefano Napolitano BUY Franco Agamenone 51¢ $2 13h
Parma: Franco Agamenone vs Stefano Napolitano BUY Franco Agamenone 42¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $2 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $2 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2242 history records