Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T04:36:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BE 0xbe56…a9cd world 45 markets active 1h ago coverage 453d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$6 (-1%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate40%18W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 53% −$7
other 23% +$2
politics 13% −$4
tech 4% $0
finance 3% +$3
weather 1% +$1
economics 1% $0
sports 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.2% -9.7% 14% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 13 +1.3% -8.3% 31% 8% -10.5%
≤90d 13 +1.3% -8.3% 31% 8% -10.5%
all 45 -1.7% -11.1% 40% 4% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.1% 4% -10.2%
10% -19.6% 4% -18.8%
15% -27.4% 2% -26.7%
20% -34.5% 0% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 63% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

453d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses18 / 27
Open positions0
Markets (closed)45 / 45
History coverage453d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 45 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 24 $67 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 23 $2 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 23 $60 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 23 $35 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? Jun 20 $33 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $4 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 17 $33 $0 -1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 27 $8 +$3 +32%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 26 $31 −$2 -6%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $62 −$5 -8%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 26 $29 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 25 $31 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 25 $34 $0 +0%
Will Jack Draper win Wimbledon 2025? Dec 14 $2 $0 +6%
Will Gualberto Cusi Mamani win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Dec 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will Trump sell 5k-10k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 01 $8 −$4 -55%
Will global temperature increase by less than 1.05ºC in May 2025? Jun 11 $8 +$1 +8%
Will Lee Jun-seok win between 2% and 5% of the vote in the South Korea May 30 $9 $0 -0%
Will Karol Nawrocki be the next President of Poland? May 29 $8 $0 -3%
Will Gianluigi Donnarumma win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? May 28 $9 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture Yunakivka before June? May 27 $15 $0 +0%
Will Nottingham Forest finish in the top 4 of EPL? May 26 $14 +$1 +4%
Will Nicușor Dan win by more than 12%? May 21 $8 $0 +4%
Will Luís Montenegro be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after the May 21 $7 +$1 +9%
Will Trump sell 2.5k-5k Gold Cards in 2025? May 16 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the Eastern Conference? May 15 $5 +$2 +50%
Will Trump meet with Friedrich Merz in 2025? May 13 $8 $0 -1%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? May 12 $8 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair? May 11 $8 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on May 31? May 10 $8 $0 +0%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2024-25 NBA MVP? May 09 $8 $0 +1%
Will 'Avatar: Fire and Ash' have the best domestic opening weekend in May 08 $7 $0 -2%
Will TikTok be banned again before May? May 07 $8 $0 +2%
Will Ethereum dip to $1200 in April? Apr 20 $4 $0 -10%
Will CDU/CSU and SPD form the next German Government? Apr 19 $8 $0 +0%
Will Trump end Department of Education in first 100 days? Apr 19 $12 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on June 30? Apr 18 $12 $0 +0%
Will Elena Lasconi win the Romanian presidential election? Apr 18 $12 $0 +0%
Will Fridolin Ambongo Besungu be the next pope? Apr 16 $13 $0 +0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2025? Apr 12 $15 −$1 -9%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 05 $15 $0 +0%
Will Scott Bessent be out as Secretary of the Treasury in Trump's firs Apr 02 $15 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 375-399 times March 28 - April 4? Apr 01 $14 $0 +1%
Will Trump pardon Eric Adams in his first 100 days? Apr 01 $15 $0 +0%
Trump ends all military aid to Ukraine before April? Mar 29 $15 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $35 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $35 3h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes $2 11h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes $1 12h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes $1 12h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 69¢ $35 16h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 69¢ $35 16h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $27 23h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $8 23h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $35 25h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 74¢ $24 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 74¢ $24 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? SELL No 88¢ $33 4d
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? BUY No 88¢ $33 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $25 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $7 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $30 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $2 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $4 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $2 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $2 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 69¢ $22 6d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 69¢ $10 6d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 70¢ $33 6d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes $0 27d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL Yes 17¢ $7 28d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY Yes 17¢ $7 28d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 84¢ $3 28d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 84¢ $30 28d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 85¢ $33 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 130 history records