Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T04:55:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

BE
0xbe54…d2e3
sports · 316 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$255 -13%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$440 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist
Net worth$1
Realized−$440
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses126 / 189
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)315 / 316
History coverage247d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%
Chart Positions 1 History 315 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$4
14 days−$4
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 75¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+34%)
Hawks vs. Nets Nets 11¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Canucks vs. Stars Stars 88¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-01-11? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Cavaliers vs. 76ers 76ers 21¢ $191 $0 −$191 (-100%)
Pelicans vs. Timberwolves Timberwolves 26¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Rockets vs. Thunder Thunder 23¢ $89 $0 −$89 (-100%)
Pistons vs. Hornets Hornets 13¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bucks vs. Lakers Lakers 52¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
Lakers vs. Thunder Lakers 27¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Inter win on 2025-10-25? Yes 41¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will Sora be the #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 24? Yes 62¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Knicks vs. Warriors Knicks 27¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Rockets vs. Mavericks Rockets 59¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Clippers vs. Kings Kings $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
Will Sevilla win on 2025-10-18? Yes 53¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Hamas release all Israeli hostages by October 13? No 28¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Stade Rennais FC 1901 win on 2025-10-19? Yes 83¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Spurs vs. Lakers Lakers 28¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Virginia vs. Duke Duke 66¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Dayton Flyers vs. VCU Rams Dayton Flyers 24¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Zohran Mamdani win 2 boroughs in the 2025 New York City Mayoral General Election? Yes $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Kings vs. Warriors Kings 20¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Warriors vs. Trail Blazers Warriors 58¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Raptors vs. Pacers Pacers 26¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $34 −$5 -15%
Will CR Brasil win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $2 −$1 -46%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $1 +$1 +104%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +42%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $1 +$1 +108%
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Valentin Vacherot vs Alex de Minaur Apr 10 $5 −$3 -59%
Celtics vs. Heat Apr 10 $12 +$1 +12%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 10 $21 −$1 -3%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 10 $1 $0 -33%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 10 $1 $0 -33%
Upper Austria Ladies Linz: Mirra Andreeva vs Sorana Cirstea Apr 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Bucks vs. Magic Feb 10 $6 −$1 -23%
Hawks vs. Timberwolves Feb 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Pistons vs. Hornets Feb 10 $5 −$1 -14%
Jazz vs. Heat Feb 10 $1 $0 +7%
Seahawks vs. Patriots Feb 09 $2 −$1 -30%
Pacers vs. Raptors: O/U 226.5 Feb 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Knicks vs. Celtics Feb 08 $5 $0 +4%
Pacers vs. Raptors Feb 08 $40 $0 -0%
Clippers vs. Timberwolves Feb 08 $28 −$24 -86%
76ers vs. Suns Feb 08 $3 −$3 -100%
Nuggets vs. Bulls Feb 08 $20 −$2 -9%
Hornets vs. Hawks Feb 08 $50 +$1 +1%
Warriors vs. Lakers Feb 08 $5 +$1 +13%
Jazz vs. Magic Feb 08 $19 +$10 +50%
Mavericks vs. Spurs Feb 08 $60 −$45 -75%
Rockets vs. Thunder Feb 07 $124 −$89 -72%
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-02-07? Feb 07 $2 +$2 +92%
Will One Battle After Another win Best Original Score at the 98th Acad Feb 07 $1 −$1 -100%
T20 World Cup: Netherlands vs Pakistan (Game 1) Feb 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Clippers vs. Kings Feb 07 $83 −$16 -19%
Grizzlies vs. Trail Blazers Feb 07 $18 −$4 -22%
Pelicans vs. Timberwolves Feb 07 $15 −$10 -67%
Pacers vs. Bucks Feb 07 $19 −$4 -20%
Heat vs. Celtics Feb 07 $51 +$11 +21%
Evansville Aces vs. Valparaiso Beacons Feb 07 $3 −$3 -100%
Knicks vs. Pistons Feb 07 $12 −$1 -8%
Dayton Flyers vs. VCU Rams Feb 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs Jan 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Suns vs. Knicks Jan 18 $2 $0 +18%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 18 $1 $0 -23%
Hornets vs. Lakers Jan 16 $29 −$26 -90%
Hawks vs. Trail Blazers Jan 16 $14 −$2 -14%
Knicks vs. Warriors Jan 16 $18 +$1 +7%
Suns vs. Pistons Jan 16 $11 +$2 +19%
Thunder vs. Rockets Jan 16 $10 +$2 +21%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? Jan 16 $15 $0 -3%
Grizzlies vs. Magic Jan 15 $98 −$50 -51%
Knicks vs. Kings Jan 15 $3 +$12 +400%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 84% −$352
other 7% −$27
politics 5% −$54
world 2% −$5
culture 1% $0
tech 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 12¢ $1 1h
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 89¢ $13 1h
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Spurs $1 1h
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 82¢ $12 1h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 34¢ $5 1h
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 58¢ $17 1h
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 34¢ $20 1h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 17¢ $1 2h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 19¢ $2 2h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 21¢ $4 2h
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 75¢ $1 3h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 19¢ $1 3h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 19¢ $2 3h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 20¢ $2 3h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 22¢ $2 3h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 24¢ $2 3h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 24¢ $2 3h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 25¢ $2 3h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 29¢ $2 3h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 33¢ $2 3h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 35¢ $1 3h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 38¢ $3 4h
Will CR Brasil win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 86¢ $1 29h
Will CR Brasil win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 80¢ $1 29h
Will CR Brasil win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 74¢ $1 30h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 31h
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 59¢ $2 32h
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 34h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $1 2d
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-28.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -6.5% -15.4% 50% 50% -15.0%
≤30d 6 -6.5% -15.4% 50% 50% -15.0%
≤90d 12 -21.3% -28.8% 33% 33% -17.0%
all 315 -20.5% -28.1% 40% 36% -34.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.1% 36% -34.1%
10% -35.0% 30% -40.4%
15% -41.3% 23% -46.2%
20% -47.0% 18% -51.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.34 · official $1.34 (match) · 971 history records