trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Yes | 75¢ | 100¢ | $1 | $1 | +$0 (+34%) |
| Hawks vs. Nets | Nets | 11¢ | 0¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-100%) |
| Canucks vs. Stars | Stars | 88¢ | 0¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-100%) |
| Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-01-11? | Yes | 6¢ | 0¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-100%) |
| Cavaliers vs. 76ers | 76ers | 21¢ | 0¢ | $191 | $0 | −$191 (-100%) |
| Pelicans vs. Timberwolves | Timberwolves | 26¢ | 0¢ | $10 | $0 | −$10 (-100%) |
| Rockets vs. Thunder | Thunder | 23¢ | 0¢ | $89 | $0 | −$89 (-100%) |
| Pistons vs. Hornets | Hornets | 13¢ | 0¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-100%) |
| Bucks vs. Lakers | Lakers | 52¢ | 0¢ | $16 | $0 | −$16 (-100%) |
| Lakers vs. Thunder | Lakers | 27¢ | 0¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-100%) |
| Will Inter win on 2025-10-25? | Yes | 41¢ | 0¢ | $3 | $0 | −$3 (-100%) |
| Will Sora be the #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 24? | Yes | 62¢ | 0¢ | $3 | $0 | −$3 (-100%) |
| Knicks vs. Warriors | Knicks | 27¢ | 0¢ | $5 | $0 | −$5 (-100%) |
| Rockets vs. Mavericks | Rockets | 59¢ | 0¢ | $3 | $0 | −$3 (-100%) |
| Clippers vs. Kings | Kings | 7¢ | 0¢ | $16 | $0 | −$16 (-100%) |
| Will Sevilla win on 2025-10-18? | Yes | 53¢ | 0¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-100%) |
| Will Hamas release all Israeli hostages by October 13? | No | 28¢ | 0¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-100%) |
| Will Stade Rennais FC 1901 win on 2025-10-19? | Yes | 83¢ | 0¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-100%) |
| Spurs vs. Lakers | Lakers | 28¢ | 0¢ | $2 | $0 | −$2 (-100%) |
| Virginia vs. Duke | Duke | 66¢ | 0¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-100%) |
| Dayton Flyers vs. VCU Rams | Dayton Flyers | 24¢ | 0¢ | $2 | $0 | −$2 (-100%) |
| Will Zohran Mamdani win 2 boroughs in the 2025 New York City Mayoral General Election? | Yes | 2¢ | 0¢ | $6 | $0 | −$6 (-100%) |
| Kings vs. Warriors | Kings | 20¢ | 0¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-100%) |
| Warriors vs. Trail Blazers | Warriors | 58¢ | 0¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-100%) |
| Raptors vs. Pacers | Pacers | 26¢ | 0¢ | $5 | $0 | −$5 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Knicks vs. Spurs | Jun 14 | $34 | −$5 | -15% |
| Will CR Brasil win on 2026-06-12? | Jun 12 | $2 | −$1 | -46% |
| Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? | Jun 12 | $1 | −$1 | -98% |
| Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? | Jun 12 | $1 | +$1 | +104% |
| Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? | Jun 11 | $1 | $0 | +42% |
| Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Jun 11 | $1 | +$1 | +108% |
| Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Valentin Vacherot vs Alex de Minaur | Apr 10 | $5 | −$3 | -59% |
| Celtics vs. Heat | Apr 10 | $12 | +$1 | +12% |
| Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Apr 10 | $21 | −$1 | -3% |
| Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Apr 10 | $1 | $0 | -33% |
| Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Apr 10 | $1 | $0 | -33% |
| Upper Austria Ladies Linz: Mirra Andreeva vs Sorana Cirstea | Apr 10 | $1 | −$1 | -98% |
| Bucks vs. Magic | Feb 10 | $6 | −$1 | -23% |
| Hawks vs. Timberwolves | Feb 10 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Pistons vs. Hornets | Feb 10 | $5 | −$1 | -14% |
| Jazz vs. Heat | Feb 10 | $1 | $0 | +7% |
| Seahawks vs. Patriots | Feb 09 | $2 | −$1 | -30% |
| Pacers vs. Raptors: O/U 226.5 | Feb 08 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Knicks vs. Celtics | Feb 08 | $5 | $0 | +4% |
| Pacers vs. Raptors | Feb 08 | $40 | $0 | -0% |
| Clippers vs. Timberwolves | Feb 08 | $28 | −$24 | -86% |
| 76ers vs. Suns | Feb 08 | $3 | −$3 | -100% |
| Nuggets vs. Bulls | Feb 08 | $20 | −$2 | -9% |
| Hornets vs. Hawks | Feb 08 | $50 | +$1 | +1% |
| Warriors vs. Lakers | Feb 08 | $5 | +$1 | +13% |
| Jazz vs. Magic | Feb 08 | $19 | +$10 | +50% |
| Mavericks vs. Spurs | Feb 08 | $60 | −$45 | -75% |
| Rockets vs. Thunder | Feb 07 | $124 | −$89 | -72% |
| Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-02-07? | Feb 07 | $2 | +$2 | +92% |
| Will One Battle After Another win Best Original Score at the 98th Acad | Feb 07 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| T20 World Cup: Netherlands vs Pakistan (Game 1) | Feb 07 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Clippers vs. Kings | Feb 07 | $83 | −$16 | -19% |
| Grizzlies vs. Trail Blazers | Feb 07 | $18 | −$4 | -22% |
| Pelicans vs. Timberwolves | Feb 07 | $15 | −$10 | -67% |
| Pacers vs. Bucks | Feb 07 | $19 | −$4 | -20% |
| Heat vs. Celtics | Feb 07 | $51 | +$11 | +21% |
| Evansville Aces vs. Valparaiso Beacons | Feb 07 | $3 | −$3 | -100% |
| Knicks vs. Pistons | Feb 07 | $12 | −$1 | -8% |
| Dayton Flyers vs. VCU Rams | Feb 06 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Timberwolves vs. Spurs | Jan 18 | $3 | −$3 | -100% |
| Suns vs. Knicks | Jan 18 | $2 | $0 | +18% |
| Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Jan 18 | $1 | $0 | -23% |
| Hornets vs. Lakers | Jan 16 | $29 | −$26 | -90% |
| Hawks vs. Trail Blazers | Jan 16 | $14 | −$2 | -14% |
| Knicks vs. Warriors | Jan 16 | $18 | +$1 | +7% |
| Suns vs. Pistons | Jan 16 | $11 | +$2 | +19% |
| Thunder vs. Rockets | Jan 16 | $10 | +$2 | +21% |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? | Jan 16 | $15 | $0 | -3% |
| Grizzlies vs. Magic | Jan 15 | $98 | −$50 | -51% |
| Knicks vs. Kings | Jan 15 | $3 | +$12 | +400% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 6 | -6.5% | -15.4% | 50% | 50% | -15.0% |
| ≤30d | 6 | -6.5% | -15.4% | 50% | 50% | -15.0% |
| ≤90d | 12 | -21.3% | -28.8% | 33% | 33% | -17.0% |
| all | 315 | -20.5% | -28.1% | 40% | 36% | -34.1% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -28.1% | 36% | -34.1% |
| 10% | -35.0% | 30% | -40.4% |
| 15% | -41.3% | 23% | -46.2% |
| 20% | -47.0% | 18% | -51.5% |