Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:55:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
BE 0xbe52…32c5 world 565 markets active 1h ago coverage 194d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 194d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$57,194 (-49%) realized −$50,897 · open −$6,297
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate50%261W / 260L
Whale WR36%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$206per market
Trades / day16.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$9,022now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$96
7 days+$96
14 days−$685
30 days−$654
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 51% −$14,805
crypto 30% −$15,753
other 10% −$2,533
world 8% −$487
economics 1% +$220
culture 0% −$172
tech 0% +$152
sports 0% +$3
finance 0% −$1
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-4.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +389.2% +342.6% 60% 60% +90.5%
≤30d 10 +203.9% +175.0% 70% 70% -73.9%
≤90d 70 +41.8% +28.3% 57% 51% -52.0%
all 521 +6.1% -4.0% 50% 37% -34.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.0% 37% -34.2%
10% -13.2% 27% -40.5%
15% -21.6% 21% -46.3%
20% -29.3% 16% -51.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 55% · top 2 58% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -47% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt -28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 36% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +5% → late +8% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$60 vs −$168 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.37 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

194d coverage
Net worth$9,022
Realized−$50,897
Unrealized−$6,297
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses261 / 260
Whale WR (big bets)36%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions48
Markets (closed)521 / 565
History coverage194d ⚠
Avg bet$206
Trades / day16.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 48 History 521 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 23¢ 20¢ $3,632 $3,185 −$447 (-12%)
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 15¢ 12¢ $2,279 $1,913 −$367 (-16%)
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $760 $793 +$33 (+4%)
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 13¢ 4¢ $2,100 $632 −$1,469 (-70%)
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $621 $609 −$12 (-2%)
Will Bitcoin reach $190,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 7¢ 2¢ $2,594 $591 −$2,002 (-77%)
Will Bitcoin reach $180,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 6¢ 2¢ $584 $178 −$406 (-70%)
Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 6¢ 2¢ $401 $157 −$244 (-61%)
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 7¢ 2¢ $556 $147 −$409 (-74%)
Will Bitcoin reach $160,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 12¢ 3¢ $490 $128 −$362 (-74%)
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026? Yes 12¢ 4¢ $346 $121 −$225 (-65%)
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $271 $102 −$169 (-62%)
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $90 $82 −$8 (-9%)
Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by December 31? No 30¢ 60¢ $29 $57 +$28 (+99%)
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 9¢ 6¢ $90 $55 −$35 (-39%)
Will Nansen launch a token by December 31, 2026? Yes 70¢ 24¢ $117 $39 −$77 (-66%)
Will Mike Lindell win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican primary election? Yes 38¢ 20¢ $77 $39 −$38 (-49%)
Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? Yes 24¢ 28¢ $30 $34 +$4 (+15%)
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 49¢ 58¢ $24 $29 +$4 (+18%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No 62¢ 90¢ $15 $23 +$7 (+46%)
OKX IPO in 2026? Yes 41¢ 9¢ $74 $16 −$58 (-78%)
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? No 50¢ 52¢ $12 $13 +$0 (+3%)
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $14 $13 −$1 (-6%)
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 26¢ 24¢ $13 $12 −$1 (-10%)
Megaquake by June 30? No 59¢ 99¢ $6 $10 +$4 (+68%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 91 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will David Belliard win the Paris mayor election? Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump nominate Marc Sumerlin as the next Fed chair? Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 29 $2 +$47 +3055%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 29 $38 +$31 +81%
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30? Jun 29 $30 +$19 +65%
Bitcoin all time high by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $816 −$781 -96%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $3 +$2 +47%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 05 $4 +$1 +32%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $22 +$3 +14%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 01 $26 +$24 +96%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? May 30 $2 −$2 -100%
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by June 3 May 29 $24 +$9 +40%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $5 $0 +9%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 25 $2 −$2 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 25 $3 −$3 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 23 $21 −$21 -100%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? May 21 $20 +$72 +368%
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? May 18 $422 −$401 -95%
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 17 $2 −$2 -97%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? May 16 $14 −$2 -17%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? May 16 $33 +$17 +50%
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? May 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 12 $2 $0 -18%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? May 11 $25 +$6 +22%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? May 11 $14 +$10 +73%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 07 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 07 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Brad Raffensperger win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican prima May 05 $35 +$11 +32%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz in April? Apr 30 $18 +$7 +36%
Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? Apr 30 $11 +$14 +125%
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026? Apr 30 $20 +$30 +151%
Clavicular pregnancy in 2026? Apr 29 $3 −$3 -96%
Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? Apr 28 $1 +$1 +127%
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? Apr 28 $111 −$7 -6%
Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats Apr 28 $9 +$1 +14%
Iran leadership change by May 31? Apr 25 $4 −$4 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? Apr 25 $4 −$4 -100%
U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by April 30? Apr 25 $4 +$7 +186%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 24, 2026? Apr 25 $2 +$23 +1011%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? Apr 25 $39 +$11 +29%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? Apr 23 $4 −$4 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026? Apr 23 $9 +$16 +178%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 21, 2026? Apr 23 $16 +$9 +56%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? Apr 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Steve Witkoff attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Apr 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Apr 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by April 30? Apr 18 $18 +$5 +26%
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by April 30, 2026? Apr 18 $17 +$6 +37%
US announces military support of Iran opposition by April 30? Apr 18 $22 +$2 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in SELL Yes 98¢ $49 1h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 99¢ $50 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $568 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $1,091 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $169 5h
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $49 5h
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $85 8h
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 13h
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 13h
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 13h
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $698 13h
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $878 13h
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $645 13h
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 14h
Bitcoin all time high by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 9d
Bitcoin all time high by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 9d
Bitcoin all time high by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 10d
Bitcoin all time high by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 10d
Bitcoin all time high by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 10d
Bitcoin all time high by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 10d
Bitcoin all time high by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $2 10d
Bitcoin all time high by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $2 10d
Bitcoin all time high by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 10d
Bitcoin all time high by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 10d
Bitcoin all time high by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $2 10d
Bitcoin all time high by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 10d
Bitcoin all time high by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 10d
Bitcoin all time high by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 10d
Bitcoin all time high by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 10d
Bitcoin all time high by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9,022.19 · official $9,021.19 (match) · 3500 history records