Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T15:05:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BE 0xbe4a…bd70 world 76 markets active 1h ago coverage 112d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,177 (-21%) realized −$1,176 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -29% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate32%23W / 50L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$72per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$281
7 days−$281
14 days−$287
30 days−$287
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 54% −$1,324
crypto 30% +$175
other 9% −$18
politics 3% −$38
sports 3% +$26
finance 1% −$30
economics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-35.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -90.1% -91.0% 0% 0% -91.0%
≤30d 2 -60.6% -64.4% 0% 0% -88.2%
≤90d 40 -70.1% -73.0% 12% 12% -52.1%
all 73 -28.8% -35.6% 32% 25% -29.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -35.6% 25% -29.6%
10% -41.7% 18% -36.4%
15% -47.3% 12% -42.5%
20% -52.5% 7% -48.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -47% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -29% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +16% → late -72% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$39 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.38 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

112d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized−$1,176
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses23 / 50
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)73 / 76
History coverage112d
Avg bet$72
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 73 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 20 $312 −$281 -90%
Iran closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 07 $18 −$6 -31%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? May 01 $10 −$10 -100%
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026? Apr 25 $435 −$435 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Apr 14 $4 −$4 -94%
Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 14, 2026? Apr 14 $274 −$114 -42%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April? Apr 12 $8 +$2 +30%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 09 $20 −$12 -60%
Trump announces Hormuz deadline extension today? Apr 09 $123 −$123 -100%
Will Iran strike Turkey in March? Apr 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? Apr 08 $56 −$23 -40%
Israeli forces enter Beirut by April 30, 2026? Apr 07 $40 +$20 +50%
Houthi strike on Israel by March 31, 2026? Apr 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Houthi strike on Israel by April 15, 2026? Apr 05 $189 +$201 +106%
Will Iran strike Israel on March 4? Apr 02 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 8, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Apr 02 $151 +$66 +44%
Will Trump say "Save Act" or "Save America Act" this week? (March 8) Apr 02 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 12, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Apr 02 $9 −$9 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 8, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Apr 02 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Apr 02 $110 −$14 -13%
Will another country strike Iran by March 31? Apr 02 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 9, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Apr 02 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 8, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Apr 02 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Apr 02 $150 −$32 -22%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me Apr 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations by March 31? Apr 02 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 8, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Apr 02 $1 −$1 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Apr 02 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Trump say "Make America Great Again" or "MAGA" this week? (March Apr 02 $10 −$10 -100%
US/Israel strike Yemen by March 14? Apr 02 $70 −$70 -100%
Will Trump say "Peanut" this week? (March 8) Apr 02 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m Apr 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump say "Black Plastic" this week? (March 8) Apr 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Iran leadership change by March 31? Apr 02 $50 −$50 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on March 9? Apr 02 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Apr 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Apr 02 $50 −$50 -100%
US/Israel strike on Fordow nuclear facility by March 31? Mar 27 $134 −$76 -57%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31? Mar 23 $122 +$25 +21%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Mar 18 $134 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Mar 12 $9 $0 +4%
Will Iran strike Pakistan in March? Mar 12 $30 −$21 -70%
Will Iran strike Israel on March 6? Mar 12 $259 −$259 -100%
Israel strike on Yemen by March 31, 2026? Mar 11 $200 −$66 -33%
Will Iran strike Israel on March 10? Mar 10 $300 +$15 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 10, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Mar 10 $40 +$2 +4%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in March? Mar 10 $100 +$22 +22%
XRP Up or Down - March 9, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Mar 09 $20 −$4 -19%
Will Ali Motahari be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 1h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 1h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $31 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 38¢ $12 12d
Iran closes its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $12 12d
Iran closes its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 77¢ $18 12d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 61¢ $300 12d
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $435 55d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 2¢ $4 57d
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $10 57d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $4 66d
Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 14, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $4 66d
Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 14, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $155 68d
Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 14, 2026? SELL Yes 25¢ $156 68d
Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 14, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $108 69d
Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 14, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 69d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April? SELL Yes 9¢ $10 69d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April? BUY Yes 7¢ $8 71d
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $8 71d
Trump announces Hormuz deadline extension today? BUY No 1¢ $1 73d
Trump announces Hormuz deadline extension today? BUY No 5¢ $32 73d
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $33 73d
Trump announces Hormuz deadline extension today? BUY No 50¢ $60 73d
Israeli forces enter Beirut by April 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $60 73d
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $20 73d
Trump announces Hormuz deadline extension today? BUY No 57¢ $30 73d
Israeli forces enter Beirut by April 30, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $40 75d
Houthi strike on Israel by March 31, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 78d
Houthi strike on Israel by April 15, 2026? BUY Yes 29¢ $50 78d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.16 · official $29.16 (match) · 200 history records