trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 6¢ | 6¢ | $3 | $3 | +$0 (+2%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | Jun 12 | $45 | +$2 | +4% |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia | Jun 10 | $20 | $0 | +0% |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? | Jun 08 | $34 | +$3 | +9% |
| Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026? | Apr 27 | $27 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) win the most seats in the 2026 Tam | Apr 26 | $23 | −$4 | -19% |
| Will Elon Musk post 1040-1079 tweets in April 2026? | Apr 24 | $87 | +$1 | +2% |
| Will Elon Musk post 1160-1199 tweets in April 2026? | Apr 22 | $94 | +$1 | +1% |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? | Apr 21 | $59 | +$8 | +14% |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? | Apr 18 | $168 | −$2 | -1% |
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Apr 03 | $244 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Apr 02 | $6 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Apr 02 | $277 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Apr 02 | $8 | $0 | +0% |
| Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Apr 01 | $14 | $0 | +0% |
| Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Apr 01 | $135 | −$1 | -1% |
| Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom | Mar 31 | $278 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Mar 31 | $253 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Mar 31 | $173 | +$3 | +2% |
| Will Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 National League Championship Seri | Mar 31 | $6 | $0 | -4% |
| Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 World Series? | Dec 07 | $2 | $0 | +4% |
| Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals? | Jun 24 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $85k in May? | Jun 02 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Elon tweet 200–224 times May 2–9? | May 09 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Norman Powell win the 2025 NBA 3-Point Contest? | Mar 21 | $4 | +$1 | +19% |
| Seattle vs. Abilene Christian | Feb 14 | $3 | −$3 | -100% |
| Will Juventus vs. PSV Eindhoven end in a draw? | Feb 14 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Will Travis Kelce score a touchdown? | Feb 05 | $1 | +$3 | +170% |
| Will Isiah Pacheco score a touchdown? | Feb 05 | $6 | −$6 | -100% |
| OG Shoots vs. Easy | Jan 18 | $11 | $0 | +0% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 3 | +4.4% | -5.5% | 67% | 0% | -5.0% |
| ≤30d | 3 | +4.4% | -5.5% | 67% | 0% | -5.0% |
| ≤90d | 19 | +0.4% | -9.2% | 32% | 5% | -9.0% |
| all | 29 | -3.3% | -12.5% | 41% | 10% | -9.4% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -12.5% | 10% | -9.4% |
| 10% | -20.9% | 3% | -18.0% |
| 15% | -28.5% | 3% | -25.9% |
| 20% | -35.6% | 3% | -33.2% |