Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T20:36:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
BE 0xbe46…28ed crypto 246 markets active 0h ago coverage 100d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$688 (-3%) realized −$452 · open −$236
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate67%164W / 80L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$89per market
Trades / day7.7pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$414now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$11
7 days−$11
14 days−$11
30 days−$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% −$850
other 3% −$233
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -11.2% -19.7% 54% 25% -9.7%
≤30d 28 -11.2% -19.7% 54% 25% -9.7%
≤90d 80 -8.9% -17.6% 60% 40% -16.8%
all 244 -3.4% -12.6% 67% 47% -13.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.6% 47% -13.2%
10% -20.9% 32% -21.5%
15% -28.6% 23% -29.1%
20% -35.6% 13% -36.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$54 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

100d coverage
Net worth$414
Realized−$452
Unrealized−$236
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses164 / 80
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)244 / 246
History coverage100d
Avg bet$89
Trades / day7.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 244 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 66¢ 38¢ $550 $312 −$238 (-43%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 65¢ 66¢ $100 $102 +$2 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 43 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 20 $100 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 20 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 20 $721 +$504 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 20 $206 −$200 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 20 $16 −$2 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 20 $826 +$651 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 20 $623 −$593 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 20 $317 +$5 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 20 $515 +$32 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 20 $917 +$19 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 20 $620 −$172 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 20 $205 −$102 -50%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $50 +$4 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 20 $825 +$74 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 20 $208 −$193 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 20 $77 −$27 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 20 $61 −$19 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 20 $3 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 20 $72 +$35 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 20 $35 −$4 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 20 $21 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 20 $36 −$2 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 20 $47 −$2 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 20 $56 +$13 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 20 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 20 $15 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 20 $5 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 20 $5 +$7 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Apr 14 $110 −$106 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Apr 14 $94 +$17 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Apr 14 $67 +$27 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Apr 14 $434 −$362 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Apr 14 $100 −$92 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Apr 14 $200 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Apr 14 $50 +$9 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Apr 14 $80 +$18 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Apr 14 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Apr 14 $150 +$61 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Apr 14 $13 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Apr 14 $5 +$3 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Apr 14 $50 −$49 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Apr 14 $6 +$1 +12%
Will Sam Burns win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 14 $1 $0 +8%
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 14 $1 +$3 +285%
Will Justin Rose win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 14 $4 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Apr 10 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Apr 10 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Apr 10 $308 −$299 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Apr 10 $110 −$103 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Apr 10 $200 +$45 +22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $104 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $100 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET SELL Down 69¢ $5 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $5 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET SELL Up 34¢ $5 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $5 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $103 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $102 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $103 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $103 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $103 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $103 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $103 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $104 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $102 35m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $505 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $5 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $103 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $103 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $103 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $103 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $103 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $103 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $103 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $103 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Down 2¢ $30 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $105 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $104 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $413.97 · official $413.97 (match) · 1090 history records