Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T22:12:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BE 0xbe46…8b21 other 336 markets active 0h ago coverage 126d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
Total PnL +$2,140 (+9%) realized +$1,242 · open −$40
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate34%114W / 221L
Whale WR83%big bets
Drawdown57%max
Avg bet$71per market
Trades / day14.0pace
Kalshi-fit6%portable
Net worth$43now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$26
7 days−$26
14 days−$92
30 days−$284
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 99% +$1,303
culture 0% −$47
politics 0% −$50
world 0% +$2
finance 0% −$5
tech 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -79.2% -81.2% 0% 0% -81.2%
≤30d 31 -23.7% -31.0% 23% 19% -31.5%
≤90d 243 -8.4% -17.1% 33% 27% -6.4%
all 335 -3.4% -12.6% 34% 27% -5.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.6% 27% -5.4%
10% -20.9% 20% -14.4%
15% -28.6% 16% -22.7%
20% -35.6% 13% -30.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 83% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +6% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$58 vs −$25 · ×2.37 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.23 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

126d coverage
Net worth$43
Realized+$1,242
Unrealized−$40
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses114 / 221
Whale WR (big bets)83%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)335 / 336
History coverage126d
Avg bet$71
Trades / day14.0
Drawdown57%
Kalshi-fit6%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 335 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Yes 72¢ 38¢ $83 $43 −$40 (-48%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $33 −$26 -79%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $24 −$6 -24%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $2 +$1 +69%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 03 $51 −$24 -48%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $68 −$35 -52%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 80 and 90 million views on week Jun 01 $8 −$6 -70%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 01 $14 −$3 -21%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 01 $17 +$7 +41%
Will Elon Musk post 800-839 tweets in May 2026? May 29 $9 −$5 -58%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? May 29 $13 −$8 -63%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 29 $54 −$20 -37%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 29 $28 −$7 -23%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 28 $16 −$2 -15%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 27 $78 −$11 -14%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 27 $39 +$42 +109%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? May 27 $37 −$2 -6%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 27 $24 +$15 +61%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026? May 26 $25 −$5 -21%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $8 −$1 -14%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? May 24 $6 −$6 -94%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? May 23 $3 +$3 +88%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 22 $6 −$3 -48%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 21 $54 −$41 -75%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? May 18 $58 −$39 -66%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 18 $189 −$24 -13%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 90 and 100 million views on week May 18 $34 −$24 -70%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? May 18 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 17 $25 −$11 -44%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 17 $67 −$47 -70%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? May 16 $60 +$7 +12%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 16 $107 +$10 +10%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026? May 15 $10 −$2 -18%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 15 $85 −$75 -88%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026? May 15 $170 −$37 -22%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 15 $470 +$354 +75%
Will Trump say "Tariff" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 14 $1,440 +$73 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 14 $1,022 −$717 -70%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 14 $7 −$4 -64%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 13 $187 −$47 -25%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 13 $857 +$126 +15%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 13 $213 −$42 -20%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 11 to May 13, 2026? May 13 $265 +$410 +155%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 12 $134 −$5 -4%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 11 $291 −$43 -15%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 10 $113 +$3 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026? May 10 $170 −$37 -21%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026? May 10 $337 +$293 +87%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 10 $506 +$288 +57%
Will MrBeast's next video get 90 million or more views on week 1? May 10 $75 +$19 +25%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $7 12m
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 72¢ $85 1h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $33 1h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY Yes 32¢ $4 11d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $4 11d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 11d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 11d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $3 13d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 80 and 90 million views on week SELL Yes 0¢ $3 13d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $8 13d
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $8 13d
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $12 13d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 80 and 90 million views on week BUY Yes 1¢ $8 13d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $20 13d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $23 13d
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $23 13d
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $17 15d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $13 15d
Will Elon Musk post 800-839 tweets in May 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $4 15d
Will Elon Musk post 800-839 tweets in May 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $9 16d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $9 16d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $34 16d
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $5 16d
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $29 16d
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $13 16d
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $3 16d
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $10 16d
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 16d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $2 16d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $4 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $43.41 · official $43.41 (match) · 1797 history records