Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T21:18:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BE 0xbe40…3411 world 90 markets active 0h ago coverage 488d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate38%34W / 56L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$0
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 49% +$11
other 20% −$2
sports 18% −$10
politics 9% $0
economics 3% $0
finance 0% −$2
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +0.7% -8.9% 40% 20% -9.6%
≤30d 34 +0.8% -8.8% 29% 9% -9.4%
≤90d 84 +0.5% -9.0% 37% 5% -9.3%
all 90 +0.5% -9.1% 38% 6% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 6% -9.6%
10% -17.8% 2% -18.2%
15% -25.7% 2% -26.1%
20% -33.0% 1% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 51% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

488d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses34 / 56
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)90 / 90
History coverage488d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 90 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 20 $27 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 20 $141 $0 -0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 20 $35 −$3 -8%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $18 −$2 -13%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $97 +$3 +3%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $49 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $7 $0 +3%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 15 $3 $0 +11%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 15 $48 −$1 -1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $18 +$2 +12%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $49 +$2 +5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 12 $67 +$1 +2%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 11 $70 $0 -0%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 10 $5 $0 +4%
Iran leadership change by December 31? Jun 09 $43 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $47 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $50 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $73 −$1 -1%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 07 $40 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 05 $36 −$1 -3%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 31 $1 $0 +4%
Will Alberta join the US? May 30 $48 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 30 $5 −$2 -29%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? May 29 $13 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 28 $100 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $45 +$1 +3%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 27 $21 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 27 $12 +$6 +48%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 26 $93 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 25 $73 −$1 -1%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 25 $2 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 23 $44 −$4 -9%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 23 $44 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 21 $42 −$1 -1%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 21 $44 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 21 $45 +$4 +8%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 21 $40 +$1 +1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 19 $44 $0 +0%
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 18 $2 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 17 $43 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 17 $79 $0 -0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 14 $39 $0 +0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $3 $0 +6%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $5 −$1 -16%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $80 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 25 $46 +$1 +1%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 25 $43 $0 +0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 24 $47 −$1 -1%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $39 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 74¢ $27 4m
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 74¢ $27 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $36 5h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $2 5h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $26 7h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $12 7h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $2 20h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $7 20h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $9 21h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $23 23h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $26 27h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $7 31h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $34 31h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $41 34h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 13¢ $2 36h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 13¢ $7 36h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 13¢ $7 36h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 15¢ $18 40h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 72¢ $14 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 72¢ $35 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 72¢ $3 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 69¢ $21 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 69¢ $7 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 69¢ $21 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $7 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $41 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $49 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 70¢ $48 3d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 69¢ $1 3d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 69¢ $46 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 388 history records