Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T13:42:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BE 0xbe3e…078f world 23 markets active 0h ago coverage 487d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate45%10W / 12L
Drawdown57%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 70% −$1
other 22% +$1
sports 4% +$1
weather 2% $0
economics 2% $0
crypto 0% $0
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-13.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.1% -9.6% 38% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 13 +0.4% -9.2% 46% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 14 -6.8% -15.7% 43% 0% -9.7%
all 22 -4.0% -13.2% 45% 5% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.2% 5% -9.3%
10% -21.5% 0% -18.0%
15% -29.0% 0% -25.9%
20% -36.0% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 58% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.47 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

487d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses10 / 12
Open positions1
Markets (closed)22 / 23
History coverage487d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown57%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 22 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 93¢ 94¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 20 $93 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? Jun 20 $5 $0 +0%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 20 $39 $0 -1%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 19 $35 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $35 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $36 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 16 $11 $0 +3%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $39 −$1 -3%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 13 $41 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $9 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 12 $36 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 10 $36 $0 +1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 10 $1 $0 +4%
Will Ronnie Brunswijk be the next president of Suriname after the elec Apr 01 $0 $0 -100%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2025 World Series? Jun 25 $12 $0 +4%
Will Solana hit $190 in March? Mar 25 $2 $0 -11%
Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 14-21? Mar 22 $11 $0 +3%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after March 2025 meeting? Mar 15 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Kings win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 14 $11 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 12 $11 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 57-58°F on March 5? Mar 06 $12 $0 -2%
San José State vs. Utah State Mar 03 $10 +$1 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $39 27m
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $39 1h
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? SELL Yes 12¢ $5 8h
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 11h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 90¢ $39 12h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 91¢ $39 15h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $39 21h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $39 21h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $35 29h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $1 32h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $34 32h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $16 44h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $7 46h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $9 46h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $35 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $35 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $36 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $36 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 38¢ $1 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 38¢ $4 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 38¢ $7 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 37¢ $8 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 37¢ $3 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 71¢ $38 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 73¢ $39 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $22 6d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $17 6d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $40 6d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $36 7d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $37 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.74 · official $0.00 (match) · 66 history records