trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 3 | +0.0% | -9.5% | 33% | 0% | -9.5% |
| ≤30d | 14 | +0.2% | -9.4% | 36% | 7% | -9.7% |
| ≤90d | 15 | +0.2% | -9.4% | 33% | 7% | -9.7% |
| all | 27 | -3.1% | -12.3% | 56% | 4% | -10.4% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -12.3% | 4% | -10.4% |
| 10% | -20.7% | 0% | -19.0% |
| 15% | -28.4% | 0% | -26.8% |
| 20% | -35.4% | 0% | -34.0% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel closes its airspace by June 30? | No | 95¢ | 95¢ | $45 | $45 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? | Jun 18 | $9 | $0 | +0% |
| China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? | Jun 18 | $44 | $0 | +0% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | Jun 17 | $40 | $0 | +0% |
| Iran leadership change by May 31? | May 26 | $40 | $0 | +0% |
| Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? | May 25 | $4 | −$1 | -19% |
| Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? | May 25 | $1 | $0 | +7% |
| Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? | May 25 | $40 | $0 | +0% |
| Iran closes its airspace by May 31? | May 24 | $4 | +$1 | +18% |
| Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? | May 24 | $4 | $0 | -2% |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? | May 24 | $40 | $0 | +1% |
| Iran leadership change by June 30? | May 23 | $44 | $0 | -1% |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? | May 23 | $46 | $0 | -1% |
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | May 22 | $17 | $0 | +0% |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? | May 20 | $44 | $0 | -1% |
| Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab | May 18 | $34 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? | Dec 10 | $2 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Tom Hanks be named in Epstein files? | Jun 26 | $7 | $0 | +5% |
| Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2800 on June 3? | Jun 04 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the New York Knicks win the Eastern Conference? | May 18 | $7 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Susan Crawford win by 10% or more? | May 18 | $7 | $0 | +2% |
| Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? | Apr 14 | $7 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Han Duck-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? | Apr 13 | $7 | $0 | +1% |
| Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on April 30? | Apr 12 | $7 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the highest temperature in NYC be 45°F or below on March 21? | Mar 23 | $9 | $0 | +2% |
| Devils vs. Stars | Mar 06 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Detroit Mercy vs. Northern Kentucky | Mar 04 | $9 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Trump's 2025 joint address get 38-42m viewers? | Mar 04 | $13 | $0 | -1% |